La Liga · 2023Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Villarreal

LDLDW

2–3Full-time recap

Athletic Club

DLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Villarreal	Athletic Club
Shots	17 shots/match	17 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.11 xG/match	2.28 xG/match▲
Possession	58%●	42%
Corners	9 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Villarreal: 17 shots, 6 on target, 2.12 xG. Athletic Club: 17 shots, 7 on target, 2.30 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 2.12 xG · Athletic Club 2.30 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Athletic Club's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

weak

Athletic Club's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	16 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.67 corners/match●CornersVillarreal · Athletic Club5.58 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Villarreal	Athletic Club	Baseline
Corners	5.67 corners/match	5.58 corners/match	4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Athletic Club show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Athletic Club's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · Athletic Club13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Villarreal	Athletic Club	Baseline
Shots	11.4 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	12.2 shots/match
Shots against	15.4 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Villarreal

1Draws

2Athletic Club

13 May 2023Villarreal — Athletic Club · La Liga5–1

30 Oct 2022Athletic Club — Villarreal · La Liga1–0

9 Apr 2022Villarreal — Athletic Club · La Liga1–1

23 Oct 2021Athletic Club — Villarreal · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 10 · 2 too close

1.42 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.75 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.17 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 12/12▲1.6 xG/match

1.63 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.07 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲13.3 shots/match

15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲11.2 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲4.75 shots/match

6.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲4.92 shots/match

54.9%●Possessionseason · 12/1251.2%

5.67 corners/match●Cornersseason · 12/125.58 corners/match

4.58 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲4.25 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1213.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲42%

92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1267%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal77.5

Athletic Club57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal47.5

Athletic Club70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal7.5

Athletic Club65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal7.5

Athletic Club62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal67.5

Athletic Club72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal82.5

Athletic Club75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal58.1

Athletic Club70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Villarreal12 matchesAthletic Club12 matches

1.42 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.75 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.17 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲1.6 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots12/12▲13.3 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲4.75 shots/match

54.9%●Possession12/1251.2%

5.67 corners/match●Corners12/125.58 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Villarreal7 matchesAthletic Club6 matches

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/61.17 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/6▲1 goals/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goals7/61.41 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots7/612.5 shots/match

4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/63.5 shots/match

56.1%●Possession7/648.5%

6.71 corners/match●Corners7/64.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls7/614.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples12 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4