PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 2 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Granada

LLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridGranada
Shots11 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals1.81 xG/match▲0.1 xG/match
Possession71%●29%
Corners6 corners/match●0 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gerard Gumbau · Granada · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNico Paz · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 74′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNico Paz · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Puertas · Granada · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.12 xG · goalBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 26′ · 0.24 xG · goalJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 42′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 74′ · 0.36 xG · on targetJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.67 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.91 xG. Granada: 2 shots, 0 on target, 0.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Brahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 26′Rodrygo · Real Madrid · 57′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.91 xG · Granada 0.09 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Granada's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Granada's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Granada's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Granada's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Granada have a visible away split

moderate

Granada's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.1 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Granada10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridGranadaBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Real Madrid
0Draws
0Granada
Real Madrid — Granada · La Liga1–0
Granada — Real Madrid · La Liga1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Granada in 0 · 2 too close

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/151.27 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/152.33 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 15/151.17 xG/match
1.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 15/151.98 xG/match
17.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/1510.6 shots/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1512.6 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/154.07 shots/match
3.2 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/155.47 shots/match
58.5%●Possessionseason · 15/1544.7%
6.07 corners/match●Cornersseason · 15/154 corners/match
3.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/154.2 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1513.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
53%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/150%
93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1567%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid87.5
Granada27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid94.2
Granada35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid94.2
Granada17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid87.5
Granada37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid7.5
Granada62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid92.5
Granada25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid73.8
Granada35.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid15 matchesGranada15 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.27 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/152.33 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.17 xG/match
17.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1510.6 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.07 shots/match
58.5%●Possession15/1544.7%
6.07 corners/match●Corners15/154 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid7 matchesGranada8 matches
2.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/81 goals/match
0.43 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/82.5 goals/match
2.25 xG/match▲Expected goals7/80.87 xG/match
18.9 shots/match▲Shots7/88.5 shots/match
7.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/82.75 shots/match
61.7%●Possession7/845.5%
6.86 corners/match●Corners7/84.13 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.71 fouls/matchFouls7/813.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Dec 2023, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridGranada
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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