La Liga · 2023Sun, 4 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Real Madrid

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1–1Full-time recap

Atlético Madrid

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	Atlético Madrid
Shots	17 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.87 xG/match▲	1.17 xG/match
Possession	55%●	45%
Corners	2 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	6 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.83 xG. Atlético Madrid: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.20 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.83 xG · Atlético Madrid 1.20 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid.

3 days▲Rest daysReal Madrid · Atlético Madrid4 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Real Madrid	Atlético Madrid	Baseline
Rest days	3 days	4 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Atlético Madrid12.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Atlético Madrid	Baseline
Shots	16.5 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.3 shots/match
Shots against	10.3 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Real Madrid

1Draws

2Atlético Madrid

24 Sept 2023Atlético Madrid — Real Madrid · La Liga3–1

25 Feb 2023Real Madrid — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–1

18 Sept 2022Atlético Madrid — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2

8 May 2022Atlético Madrid — Real Madrid · La Liga1–0

12 Dec 2021Real Madrid — Atlético Madrid · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 0 · 2 too close

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231.96 goals/match

0.65 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.09 goals/match

1.83 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/231.7 xG/match

0.97 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 23/231.13 xG/match

16.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2312.2 shots/match

10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2313.3 shots/match

6.26 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/235.43 shots/match

2.96 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/233.96 shots/match

59.2%●Possessionseason · 23/2351.3%

6.04 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/234.61 corners/match

3.39 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/235.74 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2310.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

48%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2335%

96%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2383%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5

Atlético Madrid67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid94.2

Atlético Madrid72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid94.2

Atlético Madrid51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid87.5

Atlético Madrid37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid2.5

Atlético Madrid12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid92.5

Atlético Madrid50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid71.2

Atlético Madrid49.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid23 matchesAtlético Madrid23 matches

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231.96 goals/match

0.65 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.09 goals/match

1.83 xG/match▲Expected goals23/231.7 xG/match

16.5 shots/match▲Shots23/2312.2 shots/match

6.26 shots/match▲Shots on target23/235.43 shots/match

59.2%●Possession23/2351.3%

6.04 corners/match●Corners23/234.61 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls23/2310.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid11 matchesAtlético Madrid11 matches

2.36 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.64 goals/match

0.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.18 goals/match

2.17 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.34 xG/match

18.7 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.5 shots/match

7.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/115.27 shots/match

62.5%●Possession11/1150.4%

6.82 corners/match●Corners11/115.09 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.27 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 5 Feb 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4