La Liga · 2023Wed, 31 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Atlético Madrid

DWLWW

2–1Full-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

LLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atlético Madrid	Rayo Vallecano
Shots	8 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.05 xG/match▲	0.44 xG/match
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	5 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atlético Madrid: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.02 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atlético Madrid 1.02 xG · Rayo Vallecano 0.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlético Madrid. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.86 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlético Madrid.

3 days▲Rest daysAtlético Madrid · Rayo Vallecano4.29 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Atlético Madrid	Rayo Vallecano	Baseline
Rest days	3 days	4.29 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible away split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.2 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Atlético Madrid

1Draws

0Rayo Vallecano

28 Aug 2023Rayo Vallecano — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–7

9 Apr 2023Rayo Vallecano — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–2

18 Oct 2022Atlético Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–1

19 Mar 2022Rayo Vallecano — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–1

2 Jan 2022Atlético Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atlético Madrid favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 3 · 3 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/220.86 goals/match

1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.27 goals/match

1.73 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 22/221.16 xG/match

1.09 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 22/221.32 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/2212.4 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲12.2 shots/match

5.45 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/224.5 shots/match

3.95 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/224.32 shots/match

51.6%●Possessionseason · 22/2247.7%

4.45 corners/match●Cornersseason · 22/224.36 corners/match

5.91 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲4.64 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2216 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲41%

82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2255%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlético Madrid67.5

Rayo Vallecano42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlético Madrid73.3

Rayo Vallecano43.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlético Madrid52.5

Rayo Vallecano47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlético Madrid42.5

Rayo Vallecano57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid2.5

Rayo Vallecano85

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid42.5

Rayo Vallecano35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlético Madrid45

Rayo Vallecano60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atlético Madrid22 matchesRayo Vallecano22 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored22/220.86 goals/match

1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.27 goals/match

1.73 xG/match▲Expected goals22/221.16 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots22/2212.4 shots/match

5.45 shots/match▲Shots on target22/224.5 shots/match

51.6%●Possession22/2247.7%

4.45 corners/match●Corners22/224.36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2216 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atlético Madrid12 matchesRayo Vallecano12 matches

2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.83 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.83 goals/match

2.04 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.01 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.2 shots/match

5.58 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.83 shots/match

52.2%●Possession12/1245%

4.17 corners/match●Corners12/123 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.92 fouls/matchFouls12/1215.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.29 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 1 Feb 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4