La Liga · 2023Mon, 1 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Villarreal

DWWWW

1–2Full-time recap

Atlético Madrid

WDWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Villarreal	Atlético Madrid
Shots	11 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.81 xG/match	1.32 xG/match▲
Possession	52%●	48%
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	22 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Villarreal: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.79 xG. Atlético Madrid: 14 shots, 8 on target, 1.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 0.79 xG · Atlético Madrid 1.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.6 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.5 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atlético Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atlético Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · Atlético Madrid12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Villarreal	Atlético Madrid	Baseline
Shots	11.8 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	12.1 shots/match
Shots against	15.1 shots/match	12.5 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Villarreal

3Draws

1Atlético Madrid

12 Nov 2023Atlético Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga3–1

4 Jun 2023Villarreal — Atlético Madrid · La Liga2–2

21 Aug 2022Atlético Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga0–2

9 Jan 2022Villarreal — Atlético Madrid · La Liga2–2

29 Aug 2021Atlético Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 10 · 2 too close

1.6 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.87 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.17 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/30▲1.72 xG/match

1.55 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.07 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲12.7 shots/match

15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲12.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲5.77 shots/match

5.87 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲3.97 shots/match

50.4%Possessionseason · 30/30●50.9%

4.97 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/304.6 corners/match

5.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲5.2 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲30%

87%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3077%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal57.5

Atlético Madrid67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal60

Atlético Madrid81.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal7.5

Atlético Madrid58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal27.5

Atlético Madrid52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal57.5

Atlético Madrid22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal57.5

Atlético Madrid50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal55.6

Atlético Madrid58.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Villarreal30 matchesAtlético Madrid30 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.87 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1.17 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲1.72 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots30/30▲12.7 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲5.77 shots/match

50.4%Possession30/30●50.9%

4.97 corners/match●Corners30/304.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Villarreal16 matchesAtlético Madrid15 matches

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored16/151.47 goals/match

1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed16/15▲1.27 goals/match

1.67 xG/match▲Expected goals16/151.33 xG/match

14.5 shots/match▲Shots16/1511.5 shots/match

5.06 shots/matchShots on target16/15▲5.6 shots/match

53.6%●Possession16/1552.1%

6.06 corners/match●Corners16/154.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1512.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 1 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4