PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sun, 14 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAthletic ClubVillarreal
Shots13 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals0.65 xG/match2.1 xG/match▲
Possession53%●47%
Corners3 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Bertrand Traoré · Villarreal · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBeñat Prados · Athletic Club · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moreno · Villarreal · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYuri Berchiche · Athletic Club · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBertrand Traoré · Villarreal · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAitor Paredes · Athletic Club · 5′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIñaki Williams · Athletic Club · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYuri Berchiche · Athletic Club · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNico Williams · Athletic Club · 20′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBertrand Traoré · Villarreal · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Guedes · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBertrand Traoré · Villarreal · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 57′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBeñat Prados · Athletic Club · 8′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Berenguer · Athletic Club · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 41′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 66′ · 0.14 xG · goalAlex Baena · Villarreal · 14′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 11′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blockedDani Parejo · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Athletic Club: 13 shots, 6 on target, 0.68 xG. Villarreal: 10 shots, 2 on target, 2.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 66′Dani Parejo · Villarreal · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Athletic Club 0.68 xG · Villarreal 2.15 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible away split

strong

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.8 shots/match11.7 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Athletic Club show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Athletic Club's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsAthletic Club · Villarreal11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAthletic ClubVillarrealBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match15 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Athletic Club
1Draws
1Villarreal
Villarreal — Athletic Club · La Liga2–3
Villarreal — Athletic Club · La Liga5–1
Athletic Club — Villarreal · La Liga1–0
Villarreal — Athletic Club · La Liga1–1
Athletic Club — Villarreal · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Athletic Club favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 1 · 4 too close

1.65 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/311.58 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/311.74 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 31/311.47 xG/match
1.05 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 31/311.52 xG/match
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/3111.7 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3115 shots/match
4.74 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 31/314.42 shots/match
3.61 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 31/315.87 shots/match
49.3%Possessionseason · 31/31●50.3%
5.35 corners/match●Cornersseason · 31/314.84 corners/match
4.03 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/315.55 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3113.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
48%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3113%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Athletic Club52.5
Villarreal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Athletic Club71.7
Villarreal60.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Athletic Club87.5
Villarreal7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Athletic Club62.5
Villarreal27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club67.5
Villarreal55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club82.5
Villarreal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Athletic Club71.9
Villarreal55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Athletic Club31 matchesVillarreal31 matches
1.65 goals/matchGoals scored31/311.58 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/311.74 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals31/311.47 xG/match
12.5 shots/match▲Shots31/3111.7 shots/match
4.74 shots/match▲Shots on target31/314.42 shots/match
49.3%Possession31/31●50.3%
5.35 corners/match●Corners31/314.84 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFouls31/3113.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Athletic Club16 matchesVillarreal15 matches
2.31 goals/match▲Goals scored16/151.53 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/151.87 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goals16/151.27 xG/match
13.9 shots/match▲Shots16/158.8 shots/match
6.06 shots/match▲Shots on target16/153.73 shots/match
50.9%●Possession16/1546.7%
5.38 corners/match●Corners16/153.53 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1513.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Apr 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAthletic ClubVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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