PitchMath
La Liga · 2023

Almería 1–2 Villarreal · La Liga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Villarreal won 1–2.

Shots
2411
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
1.841.62
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Villarreal beat Almería 2–1. Recorded in this match (Almería – Villarreal): shots 24–11, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 1.84–1.62, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Almería's recent record differs from the season

weak

Almería's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.97 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.97 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible away split

moderate

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.94 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.94 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Almería show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Almería's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAlmería · Villarreal11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAlmeríaVillarrealBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots11 shotsAlmería 24 shots, Villarreal 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsAlmería 5 shots, Villarreal 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.84 xG1.62 xGAlmería 1.84 xG, Villarreal 1.62 xG
  • Possession57%43%Almería 57%, Villarreal 43%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersAlmería 5 corners, Villarreal 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls16 foulsAlmería 10 fouls, Villarreal 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bruno Langa · Almería · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 11′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFrancis Coquelin · Villarreal · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Peña · Almería · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChoco Lozano · Almería · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDion Lopy · Almería · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDion Lopy · Almería · 67′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLargie Ramazani · Almería · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCésar Montes · Almería · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBertrand Traoré · Villarreal · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Viera · Almería · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Viera · Almería · 51′ · 0.06 xG · on targetChoco Lozano · Almería · 10′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLéo Baptistão · Almería · 49′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDion Lopy · Almería · 23′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 28′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedChoco Lozano · Almería · 3′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 33′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJonathan Viera · Almería · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Viera · Almería · 63′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 43′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 40′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedChoco Lozano · Almería · 30′ · 0.21 xG · goalChoco Lozano · Almería · 65′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 25′ · 0.44 xG · goalAlexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.49 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Almería: 24 shots, 5 on target, 1.84 xG. Villarreal: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.61 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Choco Lozano · Almería · 30′Ilias Akhomach · Villarreal · 25′Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Almería 1.84 xG · Villarreal 1.61 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Almería
0Draws
3Villarreal
Villarreal — Almería · La Liga2–1
Almería — Villarreal · La Liga0–2
Villarreal — Almería · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Almería favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Villarreal in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Almería32 matchesVillarreal32 matches
0.97 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 1.59 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲ 1.72 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 1.48 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots32/3211.7 shots/match
4.03 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 4.38 shots/match
46.3%Possession32/32● 50%
4.5 corners/matchCorners32/32● 4.75 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls32/3213.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAlmeríaVillarreal
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2023/24
Head-to-headAlmería — Villarreal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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