PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sun, 14 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal SociedadAlmería
Shots17 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.45 xG/match1.58 xG/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners5 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHamari Traoré · Real Sociedad · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDion Lopy · Almería · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetArsen Zakharyan · Real Sociedad · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnder Barrenetxea · Real Sociedad · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArsen Zakharyan · Real Sociedad · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Real Sociedad · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · Real Sociedad · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJavi Galán · Real Sociedad · 39′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSheraldo Becker · Real Sociedad · 40′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLéo Baptistão · Almería · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad · 41′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedArsen Zakharyan · Real Sociedad · 52′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedArsen Zakharyan · Real Sociedad · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChoco Lozano · Almería · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Real Sociedad · 13′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Almería · 70′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAnder Barrenetxea · Real Sociedad · 45′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · Real Sociedad · 32′ · 0.18 xG · goalMartín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad · 44′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Almería · 90′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedMikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad · 59′ · 0.31 xG · goalAdrián Embarba · Almería · 30′ · 0.32 xG · goalAdrián Embarba · Almería · 88′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Sociedad: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.44 xG. Almería: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Sheraldo Becker · Real Sociedad · 32′Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad · 59′Adrián Embarba · Almería · 30′Adrián Embarba · Almería · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Sociedad 1.44 xG · Almería 1.62 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Real Sociedad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Almería have a visible away split

moderate

Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.44 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.44 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Real Sociedad show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Sociedad's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsReal Sociedad · Almería11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal SociedadAlmeríaBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match15.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Real Sociedad
0Draws
0Almería
Almería — Real Sociedad · La Liga1–3
Real Sociedad — Almería · La Liga1–0
Almería — Real Sociedad · La Liga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Sociedad favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Almería in 0 · 3 too close

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/310.97 goals/match
1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/312 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 31/311.26 xG/match
1.09 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 31/311.66 xG/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/3111.9 shots/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3115.4 shots/match
4.23 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 31/314 shots/match
3.52 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 31/315.13 shots/match
56.5%●Possessionseason · 31/3146%
5.19 corners/match●Cornersseason · 31/314.48 corners/match
3.65 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/315.84 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
16.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3113.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3116%
77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3165%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Sociedad77.5
Almería32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Sociedad68.3
Almería40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Sociedad87.5
Almería5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Sociedad17.5
Almería67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Sociedad92.5
Almería55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Sociedad77.5
Almería42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Sociedad76.9
Almería47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Sociedad31 matchesAlmería31 matches
1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored31/310.97 goals/match
1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/312 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals31/311.26 xG/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots31/3111.9 shots/match
4.23 shots/match▲Shots on target31/314 shots/match
56.5%●Possession31/3146%
5.19 corners/match●Corners31/314.48 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
16.1 fouls/matchFouls31/3113.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Sociedad15 matchesAlmería16 matches
1.53 goals/match▲Goals scored15/161 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/162.13 goals/match
1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals15/161.05 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots15/169.44 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target15/163.06 shots/match
56.4%●Possession15/1641.5%
5.27 corners/match●Corners15/164.31 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1612.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal SociedadAlmería
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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