La Liga · 2023Sun, 31 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Real Madrid

DWDWW

2–0Full-time recap

Athletic Club

WLDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	Athletic Club
Shots	9 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.12 xG/match▲	0.27 xG/match
Possession	59%●	41%
Corners	4 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	9 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.07 xG. Athletic Club: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.07 xG · Athletic Club 0.26 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.67 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.03 corners/match●CornersReal Madrid · Athletic Club5.43 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Athletic Club	Baseline
Corners	6.03 corners/match	5.43 corners/match	4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.8%●PossessionReal Madrid · Athletic Club49.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Athletic Club	Baseline
Possession	59.8%	49.2%	48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Real Madrid

1Draws

0Athletic Club

12 Aug 2023Athletic Club — Real Madrid · La Liga0–2

4 Jun 2023Real Madrid — Athletic Club · La Liga1–1

22 Jan 2023Athletic Club — Real Madrid · La Liga0–2

22 Dec 2021Athletic Club — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2

1 Dec 2021Real Madrid — Athletic Club · La Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 0 · 4 too close

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301.67 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/300.93 goals/match

1.9 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/301.51 xG/match

0.92 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/301.02 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3012.5 shots/match

9.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/3010.1 shots/match

6.37 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/304.7 shots/match

2.83 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/303.67 shots/match

59.8%●Possessionseason · 30/3049.2%

6.03 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/305.43 corners/match

3.37 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/304.13 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3013.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3050%

97%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3070%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid87.5

Athletic Club52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid97.5

Athletic Club70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid97.5

Athletic Club87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid87.5

Athletic Club62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid2.5

Athletic Club67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid92.5

Athletic Club82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid72.5

Athletic Club71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid30 matchesAthletic Club30 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301.67 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/300.93 goals/match

1.9 xG/match▲Expected goals30/301.51 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots30/3012.5 shots/match

6.37 shots/match▲Shots on target30/304.7 shots/match

59.8%●Possession30/3049.2%

6.03 corners/match●Corners30/305.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.9 fouls/matchFouls30/3013.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid15 matchesAthletic Club15 matches

2.47 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.93 goals/match

0.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/150.93 goals/match

2.18 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.02 xG/match

18.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1511 shots/match

7.13 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.33 shots/match

61.8%●Possession15/1547.6%

6.53 corners/match●Corners15/155.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1514.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Mar 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4