La Liga · 2023Sun, 5 May 2024, 14:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Celta Vigo

WDLWL

3–2Full-time recap

Villarreal

WLDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Celta Vigo	Villarreal
Shots	23 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	3.96 xG/match▲	0.64 xG/match
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	2 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Celta Vigo: 23 shots, 7 on target, 3.91 xG. Villarreal: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celta Vigo 3.91 xG · Villarreal 0.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.18 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible away split

moderate

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.06 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.06 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Celta Vigo show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsCelta Vigo · Villarreal11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Celta Vigo	Villarreal	Baseline
Shots	12.9 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.2 shots/match
Shots against	12.6 shots/match	15.6 shots/match	12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Celta Vigo

2Draws

3Villarreal

20 Dec 2023Villarreal — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–2

30 Apr 2023Villarreal — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–1

13 Jan 2023Celta Vigo — Villarreal · La Liga1–1

12 Mar 2022Villarreal — Celta Vigo · La Liga1–0

20 Nov 2021Celta Vigo — Villarreal · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 3 · 3 too close

1.18 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/34▲1.65 goals/match

1.53 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/341.71 goals/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/34▲1.45 xG/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 34/341.58 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 34/3411.8 shots/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 34/3415.6 shots/match

4.24 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/344.41 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/345.82 shots/match

45.7%Possessionseason · 34/34●49.8%

4.94 corners/match●Cornersseason · 34/344.59 corners/match

5.03 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/345.44 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3413 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3415%

65%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/34▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo32.5

Villarreal57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo60.8

Villarreal60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo29.2

Villarreal5.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo92.5

Villarreal32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo32.5

Villarreal52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo62.5

Villarreal50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo57.5

Villarreal51.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Celta Vigo34 matchesVillarreal34 matches

1.18 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲1.65 goals/match

1.53 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/341.71 goals/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲1.45 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots34/3411.8 shots/match

4.24 shots/matchShots on target34/344.41 shots/match

45.7%Possession34/34●49.8%

4.94 corners/match●Corners34/344.59 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls34/3413 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Celta Vigo17 matchesVillarreal17 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.59 goals/match

1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.88 goals/match

1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.25 xG/match

15.4 shots/match▲Shots17/179.06 shots/match

4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.65 shots/match

48.8%●Possession17/1746.4%

6.24 corners/match●Corners17/173.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples34 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 May 2024, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4