PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sun, 12 May 2024, 14:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtlético MadridCelta Vigo
Shots21 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.36 xG/match▲0.45 xG/match
Possession56%●44%
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls7 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Marcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Riquelme · Atlético Madrid · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKoke · Atlético Madrid · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFran Beltrán · Celta Vigo · 67′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 84′ · 0.02 xG · goalJailson · Celta Vigo · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMemphis Depay · Atlético Madrid · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 14′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMemphis Depay · Atlético Madrid · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPablo Barrios · Atlético Madrid · 77′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 84′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Morata · Atlético Madrid · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPablo Barrios · Atlético Madrid · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMemphis Depay · Atlético Madrid · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Riquelme · Atlético Madrid · 14′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 19′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Morata · Atlético Madrid · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedÁngel Correa · Atlético Madrid · 2′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 55′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFran Beltrán · Celta Vigo · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 59′ · 0.20 xG · on targetMarcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 40′ · 0.55 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atlético Madrid: 21 shots, 8 on target, 1.37 xG. Celta Vigo: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Rodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atlético Madrid 1.37 xG · Celta Vigo 0.43 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Celta Vigo have a visible away split

moderate

Celta Vigo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

5Atlético Madrid
0Draws
0Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–3
Celta Vigo — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–1
Atlético Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga4–1
Atlético Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga2–0
Celta Vigo — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atlético Madrid favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 0 · 4 too close

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 35/351.14 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 35/351.51 goals/match
1.66 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 35/351.35 xG/match
1.05 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 35/351.45 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/3512.7 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 35/3512.8 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 35/354.17 shots/match
3.83 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 35/354.6 shots/match
50.7%●Possessionseason · 35/3545.7%
4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/35●5 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 35/355 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3511.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/3517%
77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3563%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlético Madrid72.5
Celta Vigo32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlético Madrid82.5
Celta Vigo56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlético Madrid66.7
Celta Vigo27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlético Madrid62.5
Celta Vigo92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid27.5
Celta Vigo32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid52.5
Celta Vigo67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlético Madrid61.2
Celta Vigo55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atlético Madrid35 matchesCelta Vigo35 matches
1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored35/351.14 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed35/351.51 goals/match
1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals35/351.35 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots35/3512.7 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target35/354.17 shots/match
50.7%●Possession35/3545.7%
4.57 corners/matchCorners35/35●5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls35/3511.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atlético Madrid18 matchesCelta Vigo18 matches
2.28 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.28 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.83 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.03 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots18/1810.2 shots/match
5.78 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.67 shots/match
49.1%●Possession18/1842.7%
4.06 corners/match●Corners18/183.83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 May 2024, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtlético MadridCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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