PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 25 May 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
Shots17 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals1.06 xG/match▲0.95 xG/match
Possession64%●36%
Corners8 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Unai López · Rayo Vallecano · 1′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Athletic Club · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBebé · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNico Williams · Athletic Club · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 35′ · 0.03 xG · on targetÁlex Berenguer · Athletic Club · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 54′ · 0.04 xG · on targetUnai Gómez · Athletic Club · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 88′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNico Williams · Athletic Club · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 11′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAridane Hernández · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNico Williams · Athletic Club · 50′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 83′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedRadamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano · 9′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedNico Williams · Athletic Club · 67′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.07 xG. Athletic Club: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.93 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Nico Williams · Athletic Club · 67′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 1.07 xG · Athletic Club 0.93 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.76 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.76 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match13 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano, Athletic Club.

5.98 days▲Rest daysRayo Vallecano · Athletic Club5.98 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic ClubBaseline
Rest days5.98 days5.98 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Rayo Vallecano
1Draws
3Athletic Club
Athletic Club — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga4–0
Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club · La Liga0–0
Athletic Club — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–2
Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club · La Liga0–1
Athletic Club — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 9 · 3 too close

0.76 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 38/38▲1.61 goals/match
1.26 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 38/38▲0.97 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 38/38▲1.4 xG/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 38/38▲1.1 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 38/3812.2 shots/match
11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 38/38▲10.8 shots/match
4.37 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 38/384.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 38/38▲3.66 shots/match
49.3%Possessionseason · 38/38●49.8%
4.45 corners/matchCornersseason · 38/38●5.5 corners/match
4.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 38/38▲4.24 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
14.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 38/3813.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
34%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 38/38▲47%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 38/38▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano47.5
Athletic Club57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano52.5
Athletic Club64.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano55.8
Athletic Club87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano72.5
Athletic Club42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Athletic Club62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano32.5
Athletic Club82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano65
Athletic Club66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano38 matchesAthletic Club38 matches
0.76 goals/matchGoals scored38/38▲1.61 goals/match
1.26 goals/matchGoals allowed38/38▲0.97 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals38/38▲1.4 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shots38/3812.2 shots/match
4.37 shots/matchShots on target38/384.5 shots/match
49.3%Possession38/38●49.8%
4.45 corners/matchCorners38/38●5.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.8 fouls/matchFouls38/3813.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano19 matchesAthletic Club19 matches
0.95 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1 goals/match
1.37 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1 goals/match
1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals19/190.95 xG/match
15.2 shots/match▲Shots19/1910.2 shots/match
5.32 shots/match▲Shots on target19/192.95 shots/match
52.6%●Possession19/1946.9%
5.74 corners/match●Corners19/195.05 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.4 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.98 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 May 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match