PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridVillarreal
Shots11 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals0.47 xG/match1.15 xG/match▲
Possession55%●45%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls7 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 14′ · 0.02 xG · goalNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 73′ · 0.03 xG · goalRamón Terrats · Villarreal · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 13′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedThierno Barry · Villarreal · 17′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedThierno Barry · Villarreal · 83′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid · 34′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 81′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedThierno Barry · Villarreal · 81′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.46 xG. Villarreal: 12 shots, 1 on target, 1.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Federico Valverde · Real Madrid · 14′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 73′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 0.46 xG · Villarreal 1.14 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid, Villarreal. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.4 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Villarreal14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridVillarrealBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match14.6 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid, Villarreal.

6 days▲Rest daysReal Madrid · Villarreal5 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricReal MadridVillarrealBaseline
Rest days6 days5 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.4%●PossessionReal Madrid · Villarreal42.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridVillarrealBaseline
Possession60.4%42.7%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Real Madrid
2Draws
2Villarreal
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga4–4
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga4–1
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga2–3
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga2–1
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 0 · 2 too close

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.89 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.89 goals/match
1.95 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/91.71 xG/match
0.83 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/91.33 xG/match
17.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/914.6 shots/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/913.3 shots/match
6.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/94.44 shots/match
2.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95.11 shots/match
60.4%●Possessionseason · 9/942.7%
5.67 corners/match●Cornersseason · 9/94 corners/match
4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.11 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
8.78 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/910.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/90%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/989%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Villarreal17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5
Villarreal78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid87.5
Villarreal15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid82.5
Villarreal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid7.5
Villarreal22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid72.5
Villarreal25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid66.2
Villarreal48.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid9 matchesVillarreal9 matches
2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.89 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
1.95 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.71 xG/match
17.4 shots/match▲Shots9/914.6 shots/match
6.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.44 shots/match
60.4%●Possession9/942.7%
5.67 corners/match●Corners9/94 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.78 fouls/matchFouls9/910.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid5 matchesVillarreal5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
2.17 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.18 xG/match
18.2 shots/match▲Shots5/513 shots/match
7.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
64.2%●Possession5/543.4%
5.4 corners/match●Corners5/53.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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