UEFA Champions League · 2024

Lille 1–0 Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League

Lille

WLWLL
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 1–0.

Shots
712
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
1.192.18
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Real Madrid 1–0. Recorded in this match (Lille – Real Madrid): shots 7–12, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 1.19–2.18, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lille have a visible home split

weak

Lille's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match11 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots12 shotsLille 7 shots, Real Madrid 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsLille 3 shots, Real Madrid 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG2.18 xGLille 1.19 xG, Real Madrid 2.18 xG
  • Possession42%58%Lille 42%, Real Madrid 58%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersLille 2 corners, Real Madrid 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls14 foulsLille 12 fouls, Real Madrid 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Edon Zhegrova · Lille · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetArda Güler · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 65′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 25′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJonathan David · Lille · 25′ · 0.12 xG · on targetEndrick · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 87′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.30 xG · on targetEndrick · Real Madrid · 19′ · 0.46 xG · on targetJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.46 xG · on targetAntonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.58 xG · on targetJonathan David · Lille · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.25 xG. Real Madrid: 12 shots, 6 on target, 2.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jonathan David · Lille · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 1.25 xG · Real Madrid 2.46 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

  • Rest before fixture · Both teams: 15 days
  • Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches

Lille / Real Madrid

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 2home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 2last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Oct 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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