PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Lille 2–1 Toulouse · Ligue 1

Lille

WLLDW
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 2–1.

Shots
109
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.611.11
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Toulouse 2–1. Recorded in this match (Lille – Toulouse): shots 10–9, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.61–1.11, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLille · Toulouse10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleToulouseBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match10.7 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against8.14 shots/match8.57 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Lille have a visible home split

weak

Lille's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match14.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.86 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsLille 10 shots, Toulouse 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsLille 3 shots, Toulouse 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.61 xG1.11 xGLille 1.61 xG, Toulouse 1.11 xG
  • Possession58%42%Lille 58%, Toulouse 42%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersLille 4 corners, Toulouse 6 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls8 foulsLille 13 fouls, Toulouse 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joshua King · Toulouse · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMiha Zajc · Toulouse · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndré Gomes · Lille · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAngel Gomes · Lille · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAngel Gomes · Lille · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGabriel Gudmundsson · Lille · 32′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 71′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 27′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 85′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJoshua King · Toulouse · 48′ · 0.17 xG · on targetZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.26 xG · goalJonathan David · Lille · 49′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedAngel Gomes · Lille · 57′ · 0.40 xG · goalAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.49 xG · on targetMitchel Bakker · Lille · 72′ · 0.55 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.60 xG. Toulouse: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Angel Gomes · Lille · 57′Mitchel Bakker · Lille · 72′Zakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 39′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 1.60 xG · Toulouse 1.25 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Lille
1Draws
1Toulouse
Toulouse — Lille · Ligue 13–1
Lille — Toulouse · Ligue 11–1
Toulouse — Lille · Ligue 10–2
Lille — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille7 matchesToulouse7 matches
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
1.94 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.4 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots7/710.7 shots/match
5.71 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73.57 shots/match
61.6% ●Possession7/745.4%
5.57 corners/match ●Corners7/74.86 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls7/713.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headLille — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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