PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Mon, 30 Sept 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealLas Palmas
Shots20 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.79 xG/match▲0.86 xG/match
Possession42%58%●
Corners3 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kiko Femenía · Villarreal · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdnan Januzaj · Las Palmas · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOli McBurnie · Las Palmas · 21′ · 0.03 xG · on targetManuel Fuster · Las Palmas · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlex Suárez · Las Palmas · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 60′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEric Bailly · Villarreal · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 40′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFábio Silva · Las Palmas · 47′ · 0.07 xG · goalDenis Suárez · Villarreal · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 39′ · 0.08 xG · on targetThierno Barry · Villarreal · 71′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.12 xG · goalAlex Baena · Villarreal · 61′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedEric Bailly · Villarreal · 76′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 69′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.34 xG · goalThierno Barry · Villarreal · 84′ · 0.42 xG · goalFábio Silva · Las Palmas · 11′ · 0.58 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 51′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 20 shots, 7 on target, 2.85 xG. Las Palmas: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Nicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 45′Thierno Barry · Villarreal · 84′Alex Baena · Villarreal · 90′Fábio Silva · Las Palmas · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 2.85 xG · Las Palmas 0.83 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · Las Palmas10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealLas PalmasBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match10.6 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against13.6 shots/match15.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Las Palmas have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.4%PossessionVillarreal · Las Palmas●57.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealLas PalmasBaseline
Possession42.4%57.6%46.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Villarreal
0Draws
2Las Palmas
Las Palmas — Villarreal · La Liga3–0
Villarreal — Las Palmas · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Las Palmas in 1 · 4 too close

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/81.13 goals/match
1.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/82 goals/match
1.78 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/80.98 xG/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/82.15 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/810.6 shots/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/815.4 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/84.38 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/85.38 shots/match
42.4%Possessionseason · 8/8●57.6%
3.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/8●4.5 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲3.75 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/812.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/80%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/888%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal12.5
Las Palmas77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal82.5
Las Palmas54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal16.7
Las Palmas12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal97.5
Las Palmas12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal22.5
Las Palmas47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal15
Las Palmas55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal48.8
Las Palmas53.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Villarreal8 matchesLas Palmas8 matches
2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
1.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
1.78 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.98 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shots8/810.6 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.38 shots/match
42.4%Possession8/8●57.6%
3.88 corners/matchCorners8/8●4.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls8/812.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Villarreal4 matchesLas Palmas4 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match
2.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲2.25 goals/match
2.36 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.82 xG/match
16.5 shots/match▲Shots4/410 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/45 shots/match
41.8%Possession4/4●62.3%
4.75 corners/match●Corners4/44.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.08 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 30 Sept 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealLas Palmas
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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