PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal ValladolidRayo Vallecano
Shots13 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.99 xG/match▲1.5 xG/match
Possession39%61%●
Corners5 corners/match13 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Unai López · Rayo Vallecano · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbdulay Juma Bah · Real Valladolid · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 18′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAdrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnuar · Real Valladolid · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmath Ndiaye · Real Valladolid · 37′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAmath Ndiaye · Real Valladolid · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEray Cömert · Real Valladolid · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Rosa · Real Valladolid · 75′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAbdul Mumin · Rayo Vallecano · 68′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMario Martín · Real Valladolid · 74′ · 0.11 xG · on targetIván Sánchez · Real Valladolid · 88′ · 0.13 xG · on targetSergi Guardiola · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMarcos André · Real Valladolid · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 80′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJames Rodríguez · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAbdulay Juma Bah · Real Valladolid · 83′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedSelim Amallah · Real Valladolid · 15′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 57′ · 0.28 xG · goalSelim Amallah · Real Valladolid · 51′ · 0.44 xG · goalJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 80′ · 0.44 xG · goalSelim Amallah · Real Valladolid · 62′ · 0.46 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Valladolid: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.91 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 17 shots, 3 on target, 1.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Selim Amallah · Real Valladolid · 51′Jorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 57′Jorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Valladolid 1.91 xG · Rayo Vallecano 1.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Valladolid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Real Valladolid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Real Valladolid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Valladolid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.56 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Valladolid have a visible home split

moderate

Real Valladolid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13 shots/match10.1 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsReal Valladolid · Rayo Vallecano11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal ValladolidRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Real Valladolid
0Draws
2Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Real Valladolid · La Liga2–1
Real Valladolid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Valladolid favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 10 · 2 too close

0.56 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.22 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲1 goals/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲1.05 xG/match
1.9 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.15 xG/match
10.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲11.9 shots/match
15.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲11.9 shots/match
1.89 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲3.67 shots/match
5.56 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲3.22 shots/match
42.8%Possessionseason · 9/9●48.7%
4.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/9●5.67 corners/match
6.22 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲4.89 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/915.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/922%
56%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Valladolid22.5
Rayo Vallecano52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Valladolid14.2
Rayo Vallecano55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Valladolid5.8
Rayo Vallecano57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Valladolid47.5
Rayo Vallecano57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Valladolid82.5
Rayo Vallecano87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Valladolid32.5
Rayo Vallecano72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Valladolid37.5
Rayo Vallecano67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Valladolid9 matchesRayo Vallecano9 matches
0.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.22 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1 goals/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.05 xG/match
10.1 shots/matchShots9/9▲11.9 shots/match
1.89 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲3.67 shots/match
42.8%Possession9/9●48.7%
4.11 corners/matchCorners9/9●5.67 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14 fouls/matchFouls9/915.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Valladolid5 matchesRayo Vallecano5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.92 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲2.6 shots/match
45.6%Possession5/5●45.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/5●6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/517.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal ValladolidRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Real Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath