PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 14:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoLeganés
Shots15 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals0.91 xG/match▲0.87 xG/match
Possession53%●47%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rosier · Leganés · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 48′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 21′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJuan Cruz · Leganés · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrià Altimira · Leganés · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrià Altimira · Leganés · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrià Altimira · Leganés · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSeydouba Cisse · Leganés · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSergio González · Leganés · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoberto López · Leganés · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Rodríguez · Leganés · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJames Rodríguez · Rayo Vallecano · 49′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 66′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSergio González · Leganés · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 80′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSébastien Haller · Leganés · 53′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 64′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 49′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 8′ · 0.19 xG · goalJuan Cruz · Leganés · 55′ · 0.19 xG · goalSergio González · Leganés · 60′ · 0.29 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 15 shots, 6 on target, 0.94 xG. Leganés: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Sergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 8′Juan Cruz · Leganés · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 0.94 xG · Leganés 0.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leganés's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Leganés's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leganés's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.63 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano.

2.89 days▲Rest daysRayo Vallecano · Leganés6.09 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricRayo VallecanoLeganésBaseline
Rest days2.89 days6.09 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

weak

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Leganés in 0 · 2 too close

1.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/80.63 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.13 goals/match
0.99 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/80.68 xG/match
1.05 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/81.33 xG/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/89 shots/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/812.8 shots/match
3.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/82.5 shots/match
2.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.38 shots/match
47.1%●Possessionseason · 8/843.3%
4.75 corners/match●Cornersseason · 8/83 corners/match
4.88 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/86.13 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
15.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/813.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/850%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano52.5
Leganés25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano50.8
Leganés9.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano59.2
Leganés36.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano52.5
Leganés32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano87.5
Leganés67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano57.5
Leganés2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano62.5
Leganés21.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano8 matchesLeganés8 matches
1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.63 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.13 goals/match
0.99 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.68 xG/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots8/89 shots/match
3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.5 shots/match
47.1%●Possession8/843.3%
4.75 corners/match●Corners8/83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.1 fouls/matchFouls8/813.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano4 matchesLeganés5 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/50.6 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/5▲1 goals/match
1.2 xG/match▲Expected goals4/50.54 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shots4/57.8 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/52 shots/match
52.3%●Possession4/540.8%
5.25 corners/match●Corners4/53.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/514.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.09 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoLeganés
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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