PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Fri, 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricDeportivo AlavésReal Valladolid
Shots10 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals0.49 xG/match2.45 xG/match▲
Possession63%●37%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls15 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mario Martín · Real Valladolid · 20′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedToni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés · 14′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSelim Amallah · Real Valladolid · 1′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJavi Sánchez · Real Valladolid · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedToni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSelim Amallah · Real Valladolid · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedToni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés · 6′ · 0.03 xG · goalJon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKike García · Deportivo Alavés · 90′ · 0.03 xG · goalKike Pérez · Real Valladolid · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMario Martín · Real Valladolid · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTomás Conechny · Deportivo Alavés · 11′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés · 35′ · 0.05 xG · on targetToni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAbdel Abqar · Deportivo Alavés · 35′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJavi Sánchez · Real Valladolid · 68′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAnuar · Real Valladolid · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEray Cömert · Real Valladolid · 28′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAbdel Abqar · Deportivo Alavés · 85′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAnuar · Real Valladolid · 76′ · 0.44 xG · goalMamadou Sylla · Real Valladolid · 17′ · 0.82 xG · goalSelim Amallah · Real Valladolid · 72′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Deportivo Alavés: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.49 xG. Real Valladolid: 12 shots, 4 on target, 2.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Toni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés · 6′Kike García · Deportivo Alavés · 90′Mamadou Sylla · Real Valladolid · 17′Selim Amallah · Real Valladolid · 72′Anuar · Real Valladolid · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Deportivo Alavés 0.49 xG · Real Valladolid 2.51 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Valladolid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Real Valladolid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Real Valladolid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Valladolid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.8 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Valladolid have a visible away split

moderate

Real Valladolid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.6 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Deportivo Alavés show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Deportivo Alavés's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsDeportivo Alavés · Real Valladolid10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricDeportivo AlavésReal ValladolidBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match15.1 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Deportivo Alavés favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Real Valladolid in 1 · 3 too close

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/100.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/102.1 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/101.08 xG/match
1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/101.76 xG/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1010.3 shots/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1015.1 shots/match
3.3 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/102.1 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/105.4 shots/match
42.3%●Possessionseason · 10/1042.2%
4.8 corners/match●Cornersseason · 10/104.3 corners/match
4.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/106.1 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
15.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1014 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲30%
70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Deportivo Alavés12.5
Real Valladolid7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Deportivo Alavés50.8
Real Valladolid17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Deportivo Alavés35.8
Real Valladolid5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Deportivo Alavés77.5
Real Valladolid57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés87.5
Real Valladolid82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés52.5
Real Valladolid42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Deportivo Alavés57.5
Real Valladolid38.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Deportivo Alavés10 matchesReal Valladolid10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.08 xG/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match
3.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.1 shots/match
42.3%●Possession10/1042.2%
4.8 corners/match●Corners10/104.3 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1014 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Deportivo Alavés5 matchesReal Valladolid5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53.4 goals/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.92 xG/match
10.2 shots/match▲Shots5/57.6 shots/match
3.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.8 shots/match
38.4%Possession5/5●38.8%
5.6 corners/match●Corners5/53.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 18 Oct 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsDeportivo AlavésReal Valladolid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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