PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 26 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal ValladolidVillarreal
Shots7 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.94 xG/match2.31 xG/match▲
Possession45%55%●
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls16 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mario Martín · Real Valladolid · 24′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLogan Costa · Villarreal · 64′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAnuar · Real Valladolid · 17′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSelim Amallah · Real Valladolid · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 76′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEray Cömert · Real Valladolid · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKenedy · Real Valladolid · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sylla · Real Valladolid · 2′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThierno Barry · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 81′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAlex Baena · Villarreal · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThierno Barry · Villarreal · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 55′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedThierno Barry · Villarreal · 52′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 32′ · 0.15 xG · on targetPape Gueye · Villarreal · 73′ · 0.19 xG · on targetYéremy Pino · Villarreal · 83′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 83′ · 0.26 xG · on targetThierno Barry · Villarreal · 29′ · 0.27 xG · goalAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 84′ · 0.55 xG · goalMamadou Sylla · Real Valladolid · 60′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Valladolid: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.97 xG. Villarreal: 21 shots, 9 on target, 2.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mamadou Sylla · Real Valladolid · 60′Thierno Barry · Villarreal · 29′Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Valladolid 0.97 xG · Villarreal 2.38 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Valladolid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Real Valladolid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Valladolid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.82 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10 shots/match▲ShotsReal Valladolid · Villarreal14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal ValladolidVillarrealBaseline
Shots10 shots/match14.7 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against15.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Valladolid have a visible home split

moderate

Real Valladolid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match10 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Real Valladolid
0Draws
1Villarreal
Villarreal — Real Valladolid · La Liga1–2
Real Valladolid — Villarreal · La Liga0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Valladolid favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 10 · 2 too close

0.82 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.82 goals/match
2.09 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.73 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/11▲1.69 xG/match
1.81 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.35 xG/match
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲14.7 shots/match
15.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲13.5 shots/match
2.18 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.82 shots/match
5.73 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4.82 shots/match
42.5%Possessionseason · 11/11●45.1%
4.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.27 corners/match
6.09 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲5 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
14.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1111.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/110%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Valladolid10
Villarreal27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Valladolid15
Villarreal85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Valladolid5.8
Villarreal17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Valladolid47.5
Villarreal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Valladolid82.5
Villarreal32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Valladolid20
Villarreal20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Valladolid31.2
Villarreal55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Valladolid11 matchesVillarreal11 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.82 goals/match
2.09 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.73 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.69 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots11/11▲14.7 shots/match
2.18 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.82 shots/match
42.5%Possession11/11●45.1%
4.27 corners/matchCorners11/114.27 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Valladolid6 matchesVillarreal6 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.17 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.37 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots6/6▲14.3 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.33 shots/match
45.5%●Possession6/645.3%
4.67 corners/match●Corners6/63.83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.7 fouls/matchFouls6/611.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.71 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.81 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal ValladolidVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Real Valladolid vs Villarreal — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath