La Liga · 2024Sat, 7 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Valencia

DLDWL

0–1Full-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

LWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Valencia	Rayo Vallecano
Shots	14 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.27 xG/match▲	0.9 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	9 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Valencia: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.25 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 1.25 xG · Rayo Vallecano 0.92 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	0.93 goals/match	1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.21 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.1 shots/match	9.21 shots/match	11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.79 corners/match●CornersValencia · Rayo Vallecano5.27 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Valencia	Rayo Vallecano	Baseline
Corners	5.79 corners/match	5.27 corners/match	4.78 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Valencia

3Draws

1Rayo Vallecano

12 May 2024Valencia — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0

19 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano — Valencia · La Liga0–1

3 Apr 2023Valencia — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–1

10 Sept 2022Rayo Vallecano — Valencia · La Liga2–1

11 Apr 2022Rayo Vallecano — Valencia · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 8 · 2 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/15▲1 goals/match

1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/15▲1.07 goals/match

0.86 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/15▲1.09 xG/match

1.48 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/15▲1.15 xG/match

9.21 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/15▲12.5 shots/match

10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1512.6 shots/match

3.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/15▲3.4 shots/match

3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/154 shots/match

46.4%Possessionseason · 14/15●49%

5.79 corners/match●Cornersseason · 14/155.27 corners/match

4.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/155.53 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1513.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/15▲27%

57%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/15▲73%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia37.5

Rayo Vallecano52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia17.5

Rayo Vallecano47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia56.7

Rayo Vallecano47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia17.5

Rayo Vallecano77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia27.5

Rayo Vallecano87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia92.5

Rayo Vallecano72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia38.8

Rayo Vallecano66.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Valencia14 matchesRayo Vallecano15 matches

0.93 goals/matchGoals scored14/15▲1 goals/match

1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed14/15▲1.07 goals/match

0.86 xG/matchExpected goals14/15▲1.09 xG/match

9.21 shots/matchShots14/15▲12.5 shots/match

3.07 shots/matchShots on target14/15▲3.4 shots/match

46.4%Possession14/15●49%

5.79 corners/match●Corners14/155.27 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1513.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Valencia7 matchesRayo Vallecano8 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/80.75 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/8▲0.75 goals/match

1.1 xG/match▲Expected goals7/80.87 xG/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shots7/89.5 shots/match

4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/82.13 shots/match

47.9%●Possession7/845.6%

7.71 corners/match●Corners7/84.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/816 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Dec 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4