PitchMath
La Liga · 2024

Valencia 0–1 Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Rayo Vallecano won 0–1.

Shots
146
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
1.270.9
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rayo Vallecano beat Valencia 1–0. Recorded in this match (Valencia – Rayo Vallecano): shots 14–6, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 1.27–0.9, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match0.93 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season9.21 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match9.21 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.79 corners/match ●CornersValencia · Rayo Vallecano5.27 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricValenciaRayo VallecanoBaseline
Corners5.79 corners/match5.27 corners/match4.78 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots6 shotsValencia 14 shots, Rayo Vallecano 6 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotValencia 6 shots, Rayo Vallecano 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.27 xG0.9 xGValencia 1.27 xG, Rayo Vallecano 0.9 xG
  • Possession61%39%Valencia 61%, Rayo Vallecano 39%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersValencia 9 corners, Rayo Vallecano 4 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls12 foulsValencia 5 fouls, Rayo Vallecano 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Javier Guerra · Valencia · 70′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFran Pérez · Valencia · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDiego López · Valencia · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCésar Tárrega · Valencia · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJavier Guerra · Valencia · 46′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHugo Duro · Valencia · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHugo Duro · Valencia · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGermán Valera · Valencia · 58′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRafa Mir · Valencia · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYarek Gasiorowski · Valencia · 71′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCésar Tárrega · Valencia · 79′ · 0.09 xG · on targetPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 7′ · 0.10 xG · goalRafa Mir · Valencia · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 53′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHugo Duro · Valencia · 31′ · 0.14 xG · on targetUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 85′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 35′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Valencia · 80′ · 0.54 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Valencia: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.25 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 7′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 1.25 xG · Rayo Vallecano 0.92 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Valencia
3Draws
1Rayo Vallecano
Valencia — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0
Rayo Vallecano — Valencia · La Liga0–1
Valencia — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–1
Rayo Vallecano — Valencia · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Valencia · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Valencia favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 8

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Valencia14 matchesRayo Vallecano15 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored14/15▲ 1 goal/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed14/15▲ 1.07 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals14/15▲ 1.09 xG/match
9.21 shots/matchShots14/15▲ 12.5 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on target14/15▲ 3.4 shots/match
46.4%Possession14/15● 49%
5.79 corners/match ●Corners14/155.27 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1513.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Dec 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsValenciaRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2024/25
Head-to-headValencia — Rayo Vallecano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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