La Liga · 2024Fri, 3 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Valencia

LLLDD

1–2Full-time recap

Real Madrid

WLWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Valencia	Real Madrid
Shots	8 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.31 xG/match	2.75 xG/match▲
Possession	38%	62%●
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	16 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Valencia: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.44 xG. Real Madrid: 17 shots, 5 on target, 2.77 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 1.44 xG · Real Madrid 2.77 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

weak

Valencia's last-five shots average is above their season average.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.61 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.6 shots/match	9.61 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.61 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	9.61 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.67 corners/match●CornersValencia · Real Madrid5.37 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Valencia	Real Madrid	Baseline
Corners	5.67 corners/match	5.37 corners/match	4.69 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Valencia

1Draws

3Real Madrid

2 Mar 2024Valencia — Real Madrid · La Liga2–2

11 Nov 2023Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga5–1

21 May 2023Valencia — Real Madrid · La Liga1–0

2 Feb 2023Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga2–0

8 Jan 2022Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 9 · 4 too close

0.94 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/19▲2.26 goals/match

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/19▲1 goals/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 18/19▲1.9 xG/match

1.54 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/19▲1 xG/match

9.61 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/19▲15.2 shots/match

10.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/199.89 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/19▲6.21 shots/match

3.39 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/19▲3 shots/match

48.3%Possessionseason · 18/19●60.6%

5.67 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/195.37 corners/match

4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/194.32 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/199.05 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/19▲42%

61%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/19▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia47.5

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia20

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia55

Real Madrid83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia17.5

Real Madrid72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia42.5

Real Madrid2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia87.5

Real Madrid82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia41.2

Real Madrid67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Valencia18 matchesReal Madrid19 matches

0.94 goals/matchGoals scored18/19▲2.26 goals/match

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/19▲1 goals/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goals18/19▲1.9 xG/match

9.61 shots/matchShots18/19▲15.2 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on target18/19▲6.21 shots/match

48.3%Possession18/19●60.6%

5.67 corners/match●Corners18/195.37 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls18/199.05 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Valencia9 matchesReal Madrid10 matches

1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/10▲1.9 goals/match

1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed9/10▲1 goals/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goals9/10▲1.55 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots9/10▲14.2 shots/match

4.22 shots/matchShots on target9/10▲5.8 shots/match

48.3%Possession9/10●59.3%

6.78 corners/match●Corners9/104.3 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls9/109.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.2 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4