La Liga · 2024Fri, 10 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

LWDDD

2–1Full-time recap

Celta Vigo

DLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo
Shots	8 shots/match	23 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.65 xG/match	2.26 xG/match▲
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	18 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.64 xG. Celta Vigo: 23 shots, 7 on target, 2.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 0.64 xG · Celta Vigo 2.29 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.16 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.16 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.9 shots/match	12.5 shots/match	11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Celta Vigo show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Celta Vigo12.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo	Baseline
Shots	12.5 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	11.5 shots/match
Shots against	13.3 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	11 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rayo Vallecano

3Draws

2Celta Vigo

31 Mar 2024Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0

11 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0

11 Mar 2023Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0

10 Nov 2022Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0

5 Feb 2022Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 8 · 4 too close

1.16 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲1.47 goals/match

1.16 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.58 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 19/19▲1.48 xG/match

1.25 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.09 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/1912.2 shots/match

13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲11.1 shots/match

3.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲4.63 shots/match

4.37 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲3.89 shots/match

48.3%Possessionseason · 19/19●53.3%

5.16 corners/match●Cornersseason · 19/193.42 corners/match

5.32 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲4 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1911.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1921%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano42.5

Celta Vigo72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano52.5

Celta Vigo70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano41.7

Celta Vigo39.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano82.5

Celta Vigo47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano87.5

Celta Vigo17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano72.5

Celta Vigo7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano68.8

Celta Vigo41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano19 matchesCelta Vigo19 matches

1.16 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.47 goals/match

1.16 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.58 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.48 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShots19/1912.2 shots/match

3.58 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲4.63 shots/match

48.3%Possession19/19●53.3%

5.16 corners/match●Corners19/193.42 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.4 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano9 matchesCelta Vigo9 matches

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match

1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.33 goals/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.52 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shots9/913.4 shots/match

4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94 shots/match

50.4%Possession9/9●55.7%

5.22 corners/match●Corners9/93.22 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls9/910.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/120.2 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples19 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4