PitchMath
La Liga · 2024

Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Celta Vigo · La Liga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Rayo Vallecano won 2–1.

Shots
823
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
0.652.26
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo 2–1. Recorded in this match (Rayo Vallecano – Celta Vigo): shots 8–23, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 0.65–2.26, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.16 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.16 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Celta Vigo show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match ▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Celta Vigo12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoCelta VigoBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match11.1 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots23 shotsRayo Vallecano 8 shots, Celta Vigo 23 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsRayo Vallecano 5 shots, Celta Vigo 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.65 xG2.26 xGRayo Vallecano 0.65 xG, Celta Vigo 2.26 xG
  • Possession50%50%Rayo Vallecano 50%, Celta Vigo 50%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersRayo Vallecano 3 corners, Celta Vigo 3 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls9 foulsRayo Vallecano 18 fouls, Celta Vigo 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 15′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 66′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFran Beltrán · Celta Vigo · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlfon González · Celta Vigo · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIlaix Moriba · Celta Vigo · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFran Beltrán · Celta Vigo · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPablo Durán · Celta Vigo · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Alonso · Celta Vigo · 80′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIlaix Moriba · Celta Vigo · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIlaix Moriba · Celta Vigo · 89′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarcos Alonso · Celta Vigo · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBorja Iglesias · Celta Vigo · 59′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 63′ · 0.07 xG · goalAdrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 5′ · 0.08 xG · goalAlfon González · Celta Vigo · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Domínguez · Celta Vigo · 84′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBorja Iglesias · Celta Vigo · 43′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBorja Iglesias · Celta Vigo · 31′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIlaix Moriba · Celta Vigo · 43′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.14 xG · on targetWilliot Swedberg · Celta Vigo · 83′ · 0.15 xG · on targetWilliot Swedberg · Celta Vigo · 83′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedWilliot Swedberg · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 32′ · 0.25 xG · on targetBorja Iglesias · Celta Vigo · 26′ · 0.55 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.64 xG. Celta Vigo: 23 shots, 7 on target, 2.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 5′Jorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 63′Borja Iglesias · Celta Vigo · 26′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 0.64 xG · Celta Vigo 2.29 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Rayo Vallecano
3Draws
2Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0
Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0
Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0
Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0
Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rayo Vallecano favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano19 matchesCelta Vigo19 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 1.47 goals/match
1.16 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.58 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲ 1.48 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots19/1912.2 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲ 4.63 shots/match
48.3%Possession19/19● 53.3%
5.16 corners/match ●Corners19/193.42 corners/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2024/25
Head-to-headRayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required