PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridLas Palmas
Shots25 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target13 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals5.81 xG/match▲1.18 xG/match
Possession62%●38%
Corners8 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Federico Valverde · Real Madrid · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFábio Silva · Las Palmas · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 28′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSandro Ramírez · Las Palmas · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 30′ · 0.03 xG · on targetManuel Fuster · Las Palmas · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAntonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJavier Muñoz · Las Palmas · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 26′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 33′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 67′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 25′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 48′ · 0.08 xG · on targetEndrick · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 8′ · 0.13 xG · on targetFran García · Real Madrid · 40′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 36′ · 0.21 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 36′ · 0.23 xG · goalRodrygo · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.23 xG · goalFábio Silva · Las Palmas · 5′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 49′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 3′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 79′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 21′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedFábio Silva · Las Palmas · 1′ · 0.70 xG · goalBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 33′ · 0.79 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 18′ · 0.82 xG · goalJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.83 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 26 shots, 13 on target, 5.86 xG. Las Palmas: 6 shots, 2 on target, 1.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0360′HT90′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 18′Brahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 33′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 36′Rodrygo · Real Madrid · 57′Fábio Silva · Las Palmas · 1′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 5.86 xG · Las Palmas 1.09 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Las Palmas10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridLas PalmasBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match10.8 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against9.7 shots/match15.4 shots/match11.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2.35 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Las Palmas have a visible away split

moderate

Las Palmas's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.3 shots/match10.8 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Real Madrid
1Draws
0Las Palmas
Las Palmas — Real Madrid · La Liga1–1
Las Palmas — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2
Real Madrid — Las Palmas · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Las Palmas in 0 · 2 too close

2.35 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.25 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.65 goals/match
2.09 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 20/200.97 xG/match
1.01 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 20/201.92 xG/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2010.8 shots/match
9.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2015.4 shots/match
6.55 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/204 shots/match
2.95 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/204.9 shots/match
60.7%●Possessionseason · 20/2052.3%
5.5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 20/203.9 corners/match
4.2 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/205.25 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.15 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2012.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2015%
95%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Las Palmas65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid94.2
Las Palmas55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid82.5
Las Palmas11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid82.5
Las Palmas27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid7.5
Las Palmas52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid87.5
Las Palmas17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid71.2
Las Palmas43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid20 matchesLas Palmas20 matches
2.35 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.25 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.65 goals/match
2.09 xG/match▲Expected goals20/200.97 xG/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shots20/2010.8 shots/match
6.55 shots/match▲Shots on target20/204 shots/match
60.7%●Possession20/2052.3%
5.5 corners/match●Corners20/203.9 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.15 fouls/matchFouls20/2012.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid10 matchesLas Palmas10 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
2.64 xG/match▲Expected goals10/100.8 xG/match
17.2 shots/match▲Shots10/108.3 shots/match
7.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
62%●Possession10/1048.8%
6.7 corners/match●Corners10/103.3 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridLas Palmas
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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