PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sun, 23 Feb 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridGirona FC
Shots22 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals2.18 xG/match▲0.45 xG/match
Possession63%●37%
Corners11 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls1 fouls/match7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Aurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYáser Asprilla · Girona FC · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 41′ · 0.03 xG · goalVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYáser Asprilla · Girona FC · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 10′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedViktor Tsygankov · Girona FC · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDonny van de Beek · Girona FC · 30′ · 0.05 xG · on targetArnau Martínez · Girona FC · 5′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 33′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 66′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 15′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 74′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 89′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.20 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.23 xG · on targetViktor Tsygankov · Girona FC · 32′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 80′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 80′ · 0.38 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 22 shots, 5 on target, 2.19 xG. Girona FC: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Luka Modrić · Real Madrid · 41′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 83′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 2.19 xG · Girona FC 0.45 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Girona FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Girona FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Girona FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.28 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.28 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.7 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Girona FC10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridGirona FCBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against9.28 shots/match11.6 shots/match11.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Real Madrid
1Draws
1Girona FC
Girona FC — Real Madrid · La Liga0–3
Real Madrid — Girona FC · La Liga4–0
Girona FC — Real Madrid · La Liga0–3
Girona FC — Real Madrid · La Liga4–2
Real Madrid — Girona FC · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Girona FC in 0 · 3 too close

2.16 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.28 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.48 goals/match
2.04 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 25/251.2 xG/match
0.98 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 25/251.26 xG/match
16.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2510.3 shots/match
9.28 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2511.6 shots/match
6.48 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/253.64 shots/match
2.8 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/253.76 shots/match
61.4%●Possessionseason · 25/2557.4%
5.76 corners/match●Cornersseason · 25/254.92 corners/match
3.92 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/253.92 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
8.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2524%
92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2568%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Girona FC87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid95.8
Girona FC45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid89.2
Girona FC42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid82.5
Girona FC2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid2.5
Girona FC17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid87.5
Girona FC62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid71.2
Girona FC37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid25 matchesGirona FC25 matches
2.16 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.28 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.48 goals/match
2.04 xG/match▲Expected goals25/251.2 xG/match
16.7 shots/match▲Shots25/2510.3 shots/match
6.48 shots/match▲Shots on target25/253.64 shots/match
61.4%●Possession25/2557.4%
5.76 corners/match●Corners25/254.92 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.8 fouls/matchFouls25/2511 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid12 matchesGirona FC13 matches
2.58 goals/match▲Goals scored12/130.77 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.46 goals/match
2.52 xG/match▲Expected goals12/130.73 xG/match
18.1 shots/match▲Shots12/138.85 shots/match
7.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/132.92 shots/match
61.9%●Possession12/1355.8%
7 corners/match●Corners12/134.08 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1311.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.8 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Feb 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridGirona FC
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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