PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Real Madrid 3–1 Manchester City · UEFA Champions League

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 3–1.

Shots
1512
Shots on target
84
Expected goals
1.821.38
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Manchester City 3–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Manchester City): shots 15–12, shots on target 8–4, expected goals 1.82–1.38, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.4 goals/match2.6 goals/match1.61 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid have a visible home split

moderate

Real Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19.5 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6 corners/matchCornersReal Madrid · Manchester City● 7.5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridManchester CityBaseline
Corners6 corners/match7.5 corners/match4.88 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots12 shotsReal Madrid 15 shots, Manchester City 12 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots4 shotsReal Madrid 8 shots, Manchester City 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.82 xG1.38 xGReal Madrid 1.82 xG, Manchester City 1.38 xG
  • Possession48%52%Real Madrid 48%, Manchester City 52%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersReal Madrid 7 corners, Manchester City 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls9 foulsReal Madrid 9 fouls, Manchester City 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Phil Foden · Manchester City · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 80′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRodrygo · Real Madrid · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJames McAtee · Manchester City · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 29′ · 0.04 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 74′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbdukodir Khusanov · Manchester City · 87′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 10′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 4′ · 0.06 xG · goalRodrygo · Real Madrid · 49′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 61′ · 0.06 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 20′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSavinho · Manchester City · 76′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOmar Marmoush · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOmar Marmoush · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 85′ · 0.11 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 70′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 33′ · 0.53 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.53 xG · on targetNico González · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 15 shots, 8 on target, 1.81 xG. Manchester City: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 4′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 33′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 61′Nico González · Manchester City · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.81 xG · Manchester City 1.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Real Madrid
3Draws
1Manchester City
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League2–3
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League1–1
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League3–3
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–0
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Manchester City in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid10 matchesManchester City10 matches
2.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/102.1 goals/match
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
2.49 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/102.14 xG/match
15.8 shots/matchShots9/10▲ 17.1 shots/match
7 shots/matchShots on target9/106.7 shots/match
52.3%Possession9/10● 63.9%
6 corners/matchCorners9/10● 7.5 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls9/107.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 20 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridManchester City
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
Head-to-headReal Madrid — Manchester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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