La Liga · 2024Sun, 9 Mar 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Real Madrid

LDDWL

2–1Full-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

WWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	Rayo Vallecano
Shots	10 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.6 xG/match▲	1.02 xG/match
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	4 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.55 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.02 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.55 xG · Rayo Vallecano 1.02 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.07 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.07 goals/match	1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano13.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Rayo Vallecano	Baseline
Shots	16.1 shots/match	13.4 shots/match	10.9 shots/match
Shots against	10 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.7%●PossessionReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano50.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Rayo Vallecano	Baseline
Possession	60.7%	50.6%	49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Real Madrid

3Draws

1Rayo Vallecano

14 Dec 2024Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga3–3

18 Feb 2024Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga1–1

5 Nov 2023Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0

24 May 2023Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1

7 Nov 2022Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 0 · 2 too close

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.07 goals/match

0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.07 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 27/271.27 xG/match

1.03 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 27/271.18 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2713.4 shots/match

10 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2712.4 shots/match

6.26 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/274.07 shots/match

2.93 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.26 shots/match

60.7%●Possessionseason · 27/2750.6%

5.56 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/275.11 corners/match

4.19 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/274.85 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.04 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2714.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

37%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2722%

93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2778%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5

Rayo Vallecano57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5

Rayo Vallecano55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid85.8

Rayo Vallecano40.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid82.5

Rayo Vallecano77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid2.5

Rayo Vallecano87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid92.5

Rayo Vallecano62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid70

Rayo Vallecano71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid27 matchesRayo Vallecano27 matches

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.07 goals/match

0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.07 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals27/271.27 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots27/2713.4 shots/match

6.26 shots/match▲Shots on target27/274.07 shots/match

60.7%●Possession27/2750.6%

5.56 corners/match●Corners27/275.11 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.04 fouls/matchFouls27/2714.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid13 matchesRayo Vallecano14 matches

2.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/140.79 goals/match

0.92 goals/matchGoals allowed13/14▲0.86 goals/match

2.45 xG/match▲Expected goals13/141.03 xG/match

17.5 shots/match▲Shots13/1411.4 shots/match

7.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/142.86 shots/match

60.7%●Possession13/1448%

6.77 corners/match●Corners13/145.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.77 fouls/matchFouls13/1415.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Mar 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4