PitchMath
La Liga · 2024

Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 2–1.

Shots
1020
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.61.02
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 2–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano): shots 10–20, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.6–1.02, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.07 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.4 shots/match10.9 shots/match
Shots against10 shots/match12.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.7% ●PossessionReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano50.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Possession60.7%50.6%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots20 shotsReal Madrid 10 shots, Rayo Vallecano 20 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsReal Madrid 5 shots, Rayo Vallecano 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.6 xG1.02 xGReal Madrid 1.6 xG, Rayo Vallecano 1.02 xG
  • Possession46%54%Real Madrid 46%, Rayo Vallecano 54%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersReal Madrid 4 corners, Rayo Vallecano 6 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls17 foulsReal Madrid 12 fouls, Rayo Vallecano 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFran García · Real Madrid · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 74′ · 0.02 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 27′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAdrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 32′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGerard Gumbau · Rayo Vallecano · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.04 xG · goalPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 80′ · 0.04 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 34′ · 0.05 xG · goalAridane Hernández · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRodrygo · Real Madrid · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 14′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 54′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 14′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 28′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 30′ · 0.15 xG · goalAridane Hernández · Rayo Vallecano · 7′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGerard Gumbau · Rayo Vallecano · 27′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 35′ · 0.49 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 76′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.55 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.02 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 30′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 34′Pedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.55 xG · Rayo Vallecano 1.02 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Real Madrid
3Draws
1Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga3–3
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga1–1
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid27 matchesRayo Vallecano27 matches
2.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271.07 goals/match
0.96 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.07 goals/match
1.99 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.27 xG/match
16.1 shots/match ▲Shots27/2713.4 shots/match
6.26 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/274.07 shots/match
60.7% ●Possession27/2750.6%
5.56 corners/match ●Corners27/275.11 corners/match
9.04 fouls/matchFouls27/2714.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Mar 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2024/25
Head-to-headReal Madrid — Rayo Vallecano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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