La Liga · 2024Sat, 29 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Deportivo Alavés

DLDWD

0–2Full-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

LLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Rayo Vallecano
Shots	12 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.58 xG/match▲	0.57 xG/match
Possession	56%●	44%
Corners	8 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Deportivo Alavés: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.52 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.61 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Deportivo Alavés 1.52 xG · Rayo Vallecano 0.61 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Deportivo Alavés's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.1 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

16 fouls/matchFoulsDeportivo Alavés · Rayo Vallecano14.4 fouls/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Rayo Vallecano	Baseline
Fouls	16 fouls/match	14.4 fouls/match	12.1 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Deportivo Alavés

0Draws

3Rayo Vallecano

26 Oct 2024Rayo Vallecano — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga1–0

10 Mar 2024Deportivo Alavés — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–0

15 Sept 2023Rayo Vallecano — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga2–0

16 Apr 2022Deportivo Alavés — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–0

18 Dec 2021Rayo Vallecano — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Deportivo Alavés favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 6 · 4 too close

1.1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/291.14 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.07 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 29/291.22 xG/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.18 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲13.2 shots/match

10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2912.2 shots/match

3.59 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲4.14 shots/match

3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/294.24 shots/match

45.6%Possessionseason · 29/29●50.6%

4.66 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/29●5.07 corners/match

4.38 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/294.93 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

16 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2914.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲24%

66%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲79%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Deportivo Alavés22.5

Rayo Vallecano52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Deportivo Alavés37.5

Rayo Vallecano59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Deportivo Alavés45.8

Rayo Vallecano41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Deportivo Alavés52.5

Rayo Vallecano72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés92.5

Rayo Vallecano87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés42.5

Rayo Vallecano57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Deportivo Alavés53.8

Rayo Vallecano70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Deportivo Alavés29 matchesRayo Vallecano29 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored29/291.14 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲1.07 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goals29/291.22 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots29/29▲13.2 shots/match

3.59 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲4.14 shots/match

45.6%Possession29/29●50.6%

4.66 corners/matchCorners29/29●5.07 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

16 fouls/matchFouls29/2914.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Deportivo Alavés14 matchesRayo Vallecano15 matches

0.79 goals/matchGoals scored14/15▲0.87 goals/match

1.07 goals/matchGoals allowed14/15▲0.8 goals/match

1.14 xG/match▲Expected goals14/150.99 xG/match

10.4 shots/matchShots14/15▲11.4 shots/match

3.43 shots/match▲Shots on target14/153 shots/match

47.4%Possession14/15●47.7%

5.93 corners/match●Corners14/155.27 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1515.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Mar 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4