PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 29 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridLeganés
Shots24 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.91 xG/match▲2.87 xG/match
Possession71%●29%
Corners8 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Óscar Rodríguez · Leganés · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAntonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 53′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJuan Cruz · Leganés · 84′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDani Raba · Leganés · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYvan Neyou · Leganés · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetArda Güler · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRaúl Asencio · Real Madrid · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYan Diomande · Leganés · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 76′ · 0.08 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 58′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 21′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMunir El Haddadi · Leganés · 88′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 23′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 36′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 64′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 47′ · 0.26 xG · on targetÓscar Rodríguez · Leganés · 34′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedDiego García · Leganés · 50′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 47′ · 0.62 xG · goalDiego García · Leganés · 34′ · 0.74 xG · goalDani Raba · Leganés · 41′ · 0.81 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 32′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 24 shots, 10 on target, 3.14 xG. Leganés: 10 shots, 4 on target, 2.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 32′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 47′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 76′Diego García · Leganés · 34′Dani Raba · Leganés · 41′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 3.14 xG · Leganés 2.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Leganés's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Leganés8.24 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridLeganésBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match8.24 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match15.4 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Leganés's recent record differs from the season

weak

Leganés's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.97 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.97 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.8%●PossessionReal Madrid · Leganés41.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridLeganésBaseline
Possession60.8%41.7%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Real Madrid
0Draws
0Leganés
Leganés — Real Madrid · La Liga0–3

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Leganés in 0 · 2 too close

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/290.97 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/291.59 goals/match
1.98 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 29/290.89 xG/match
1.12 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 29/291.63 xG/match
16.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/298.24 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2915.4 shots/match
6.34 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/292.86 shots/match
3.21 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/294.9 shots/match
60.8%●Possessionseason · 29/2941.7%
5.59 corners/match●Cornersseason · 29/292.79 corners/match
4.38 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/296.24 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
8.83 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2913.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2928%
93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2962%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Leganés7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5
Leganés12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid79.2
Leganés12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid82.5
Leganés12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid2.5
Leganés67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid92.5
Leganés2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid70
Leganés21.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid29 matchesLeganés29 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored29/290.97 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/291.59 goals/match
1.98 xG/match▲Expected goals29/290.89 xG/match
16.2 shots/match▲Shots29/298.24 shots/match
6.34 shots/match▲Shots on target29/292.86 shots/match
60.8%●Possession29/2941.7%
5.59 corners/match●Corners29/292.79 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.83 fouls/matchFouls29/2913.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid14 matchesLeganés15 matches
2.57 goals/match▲Goals scored14/150.87 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/151.6 goals/match
2.48 xG/match▲Expected goals14/150.81 xG/match
17.9 shots/match▲Shots14/158.33 shots/match
7.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/153.2 shots/match
61.4%●Possession14/1539.8%
6.86 corners/match●Corners14/153.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.79 fouls/matchFouls14/1513 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.3 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Mar 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridLeganés
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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