Premier League · 2023Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeHistorical match

Nottingham Forest

WDLDD

2–2Historical match

Luton Town

LDWLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Luton Town
Shots	19 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.97 xG/match▲	1.71 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	4 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 19 shots, 8 on target, 3.04 xG. Luton Town: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 3.04 xG · Luton Town 1.74 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Luton Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.89 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Luton Town have a visible away split

moderate

Luton Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.8 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

1Draws

1Luton Town

15 Apr 2022Luton Town — Nottingham Forest · Championship1–0

23 Nov 2021Nottingham Forest — Luton Town · Championship0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Luton Town in 3 · 2 too close

1.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/90.89 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.89 goals/match

1.2 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲1.26 xG/match

1.39 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/91.98 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲12.8 shots/match

13 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/915.8 shots/match

3.78 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/92.44 shots/match

4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95.44 shots/match

40.6%●Possessionseason · 9/937.3%

3.89 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/9●5.78 corners/match

6.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲4.89 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/912.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/90%

78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/967%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest17.5

Luton Town2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest30.8

Luton Town21.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest54.2

Luton Town27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest52.5

Luton Town92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest42.5

Luton Town82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Luton Town67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest27.5

Luton Town48.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest9 matchesLuton Town9 matches

1.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.89 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match

1.2 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.26 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots9/9▲12.8 shots/match

3.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.44 shots/match

40.6%●Possession9/937.3%

3.89 corners/matchCorners9/9●5.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls9/912.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest4 matchesLuton Town5 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/51 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/52.2 goals/match

1.38 xG/match▲Expected goals4/51.12 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/59.8 shots/match

4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/52.4 shots/match

48.5%●Possession4/531.8%

4 corners/matchCorners4/5●4.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/511.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples9 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4