PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Liverpool 3–0 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Liverpool won 3–0.

Shots
219
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
3.190.45
Possession
73%27%

Full time

What the match recorded

Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest 3–0. Recorded in this match (Liverpool – Nottingham Forest): shots 21–9, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 3.19–0.45, possession 73%–27%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool have a visible home split

moderate

Liverpool's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

22.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season17.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots22.4 shots/match17.6 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.4% ●PossessionLiverpool · Nottingham Forest39.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession57.4%39.2%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots9 shotsLiverpool 21 shots, Nottingham Forest 9 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotLiverpool 8 shots, Nottingham Forest 1 shot
  • Expected goals3.19 xG0.45 xGLiverpool 3.19 xG, Nottingham Forest 0.45 xG
  • Possession73%27%Liverpool 73%, Nottingham Forest 27%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersLiverpool 8 corners, Nottingham Forest 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsLiverpool 9 fouls, Nottingham Forest 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Trent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Sangaré · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRyan Gravenberch · Liverpool · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Elliott · Liverpool · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTrent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrey Santos · Nottingham Forest · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Mac Allister · Liverpool · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 29′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCody Gakpo · Liverpool · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Elliott · Liverpool · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTrent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndrey Santos · Nottingham Forest · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Sangaré · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Jota · Liverpool · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool · 40′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 88′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 31′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Elliott · Liverpool · 59′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 30′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Jota · Liverpool · 8′ · 0.16 xG · on targetDiogo Jota · Liverpool · 31′ · 0.70 xG · goalMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 77′ · 0.70 xG · goalDarwin Núñez · Liverpool · 35′ · 0.81 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Liverpool: 21 shots, 8 on target, 3.19 xG. Nottingham Forest: 9 shots, 1 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Diogo Jota · Liverpool · 31′Darwin Núñez · Liverpool · 35′Mohamed Salah · Liverpool · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Liverpool 3.19 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Liverpool
0Draws
1Nottingham Forest
Liverpool — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–2
Nottingham Forest — Liverpool · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Liverpool favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Liverpool10 matchesNottingham Forest10 matches
2.3 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/101 goal/match
0.9 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
2.23 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.12 xG/match
17.6 shots/match ▲Shots10/1011.2 shots/match
5.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
57.4% ●Possession10/1039.2%
6.7 corners/match ●Corners10/103.8 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLiverpoolNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headLiverpool — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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