PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Aston Villa 1–0 Arsenal · Premier League

1–0Historical match

Arsenal

LWWWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 1–0.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.571.4
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat Arsenal 1–0. Recorded in this match (Aston Villa – Arsenal): shots 10–12, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.57–1.4, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Arsenal.

2.89 days ▲Rest daysAston Villa · Arsenal3.89 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAston VillaArsenalBaseline
Rest days2.89 days3.89 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.19 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAston Villa · Arsenal15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaArsenalBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match15.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match8.25 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shotsAston Villa 10 shots, Arsenal 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsAston Villa 3 shots, Arsenal 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.57 xG1.4 xGAston Villa 0.57 xG, Arsenal 1.4 xG
  • Possession39%61%Aston Villa 39%, Arsenal 61%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersAston Villa 3 corners, Arsenal 3 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls11 foulsAston Villa 16 fouls, Arsenal 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 1′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeander Dendoncker · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 42′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 61′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEddie Nketiah · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 16′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 68′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 7′ · 0.15 xG · goalMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 39′ · 0.19 xG · on targetGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 6′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Saliba · Arsenal · 57′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Aston Villa: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.57 xG. Arsenal: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′John McGinn · Aston Villa · 7′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 0.57 xG · Arsenal 1.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Aston Villa
0Draws
4Arsenal
Aston Villa — Arsenal · Premier League2–4
Arsenal — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1
Aston Villa — Arsenal · Premier League0–1
Arsenal — Aston Villa · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Aston Villa favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Arsenal in 6 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Aston Villa16 matchesArsenal16 matches
2.19 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/162.06 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 0.94 goals/match
1.85 xG/matchExpected goals16/161.85 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots16/1615.2 shots/match
5.44 shots/matchShots on target16/165.5 shots/match
51.9%Possession16/16● 61.3%
5.75 corners/matchCorners16/16● 8.06 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls16/169.44 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAston VillaArsenal
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headAston Villa — Arsenal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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