Premier League · 2023Sun, 17 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brentford

LLWLL

1–2Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WWDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brentford	Aston Villa
Shots	4 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.51 xG/match	1.42 xG/match▲
Possession	33%	67%●
Corners	7 corners/match	11 corners/match●
Fouls	19 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brentford: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.51 xG. Aston Villa: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 0.51 xG · Aston Villa 1.41 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.41 goals/match	1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa.

7.96 days▲Rest daysBrentford · Aston Villa7.85 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Brentford	Aston Villa	Baseline
Rest days	7.96 days	7.85 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brentford

2Draws

1Aston Villa

22 Apr 2023Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

23 Oct 2022Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League4–0

2 Jan 2022Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1

28 Aug 2021Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 8 · 5 too close

1.41 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲2.18 goals/match

1.41 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.24 goals/match

1.78 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/171.82 xG/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 17/171.35 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲14.8 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲10.2 shots/match

4.35 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲5.41 shots/match

4.18 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/174.24 shots/match

47.6%Possessionseason · 17/17●52.8%

4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/17●6.06 corners/match

5.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲4.35 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲24%

76%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford37.5

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford47.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford59.2

Aston Villa75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford77.5

Aston Villa72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford47.5

Aston Villa37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford27.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford42.5

Aston Villa63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford17 matchesAston Villa17 matches

1.41 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲2.18 goals/match

1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.24 goals/match

1.78 xG/matchExpected goals17/171.82 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShots17/17▲14.8 shots/match

4.35 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.41 shots/match

47.6%Possession17/17●52.8%

4.71 corners/matchCorners17/17●6.06 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1711 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford9 matchesAston Villa9 matches

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.33 goals/match

1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.78 goals/match

1.91 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.43 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shots9/914.2 shots/match

4.67 shots/matchShots on target9/94.67 shots/match

50.6%Possession9/9●52%

4.56 corners/matchCorners9/9●7.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls9/910.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.85 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4