PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Wed, 27 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTCFull timeHistorical match

Chelsea

WLLWL
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaCrystal Palace
Shots9 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.57 xG/match▲1.12 xG/match
Possession64%●36%
Corners4 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Joachim Andersen · Crystal Palace · 7′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMichael Olise · Crystal Palace · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIan Maatsen · Chelsea · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Crystal Palace · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Crystal Palace · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatheus França · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 60′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 43′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 55′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMichael Olise · Crystal Palace · 81′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 22′ · 0.11 xG · on targetArmando Broja · Chelsea · 83′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedMykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 13′ · 0.28 xG · goalIan Maatsen · Chelsea · 9′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Crystal Palace · 45′ · 0.55 xG · goalNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 74′ · 0.61 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 89′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 9 shots, 3 on target, 2.56 xG. Crystal Palace: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Mykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 13′Noni Madueke · Chelsea · 89′Michael Olise · Crystal Palace · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 2.56 xG · Crystal Palace 1.12 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea. A second useful context is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea.

3.27 days▲Rest daysChelsea · Crystal Palace5.98 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricChelseaCrystal PalaceBaseline
Rest days3.27 days5.98 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.1%●PossessionChelsea · Crystal Palace42.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaCrystal PalaceBaseline
Possession60.1%42.4%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Chelsea
0Draws
0Crystal Palace
Chelsea — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0
Crystal Palace — Chelsea · Premier League1–2
Crystal Palace — Chelsea · Premier League0–1
Chelsea — Crystal Palace · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 2 · 7 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/191.47 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 19/191.26 xG/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/191.45 xG/match
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/1911.7 shots/match
12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/1912.6 shots/match
4.84 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/194 shots/match
4.79 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲4 shots/match
60.1%●Possessionseason · 19/1942.4%
5.21 corners/match●Cornersseason · 19/194.26 corners/match
5.05 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/195.21 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1911.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲26%
74%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1974%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea77.5
Crystal Palace27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea52.5
Crystal Palace24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea57.5
Crystal Palace67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea12.5
Crystal Palace62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea77.5
Crystal Palace62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea52.5
Crystal Palace12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea57.5
Crystal Palace33.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea19 matchesCrystal Palace19 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed19/191.47 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.26 xG/match
13.5 shots/match▲Shots19/1911.7 shots/match
4.84 shots/match▲Shots on target19/194 shots/match
60.1%●Possession19/1942.4%
5.21 corners/match●Corners19/194.26 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.2 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea10 matchesCrystal Palace10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
2.13 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.28 xG/match
13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.7 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
59.2%●Possession10/1040.4%
5.3 corners/match●Corners10/103.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.27 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.98 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 27 Dec 2023, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headChelsea — Crystal Palace
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match