Premier League · 2023Sat, 30 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Crystal Palace

LLDDL

3–1Full-time recap

Brentford

WLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Crystal Palace	Brentford
Shots	13 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	0.98 xG/match	1.39 xG/match▲
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	7 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Crystal Palace: 13 shots, 6 on target, 0.97 xG. Brentford: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 0.97 xG · Brentford 1.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Brentford. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.1 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Brentford.

2.81 days▲Rest daysCrystal Palace · Brentford2.81 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Crystal Palace	Brentford	Baseline
Rest days	2.81 days	2.81 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Crystal Palace

5Draws

0Brentford

26 Aug 2023Brentford — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1

18 Feb 2023Brentford — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1

30 Aug 2022Crystal Palace — Brentford · Premier League1–1

12 Feb 2022Brentford — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–0

21 Aug 2021Crystal Palace — Brentford · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 6 · 2 too close

1.1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/19▲1.37 goals/match

1.45 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/191.63 goals/match

1.25 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 20/19▲1.78 xG/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 20/19▲1.35 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/19▲13.5 shots/match

12.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/1913.1 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/19▲4.32 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/194.32 shots/match

42.6%Possessionseason · 20/19●48.7%

4.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/19●4.84 corners/match

5.15 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/195.58 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/1910.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/1916%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/19▲79%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace27.5

Brentford47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace25

Brentford45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace74.2

Brentford50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace72.5

Brentford62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace62.5

Brentford27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace12.5

Brentford32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace33.8

Brentford38.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace20 matchesBrentford19 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored20/19▲1.37 goals/match

1.45 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/191.63 goals/match

1.25 xG/matchExpected goals20/19▲1.78 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots20/19▲13.5 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target20/19▲4.32 shots/match

42.6%Possession20/19●48.7%

4.4 corners/matchCorners20/19●4.84 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls20/1910.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace10 matchesBrentford9 matches

1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/91 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/91.44 goals/match

1.21 xG/matchExpected goals10/9▲1.61 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShots10/911.9 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/94 shots/match

44.7%Possession10/9●45.4%

5 corners/match●Corners10/94.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/911.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.81 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4