PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Arsenal 2–1 Brentford · Premier League

Arsenal

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2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 2–1.

Shots
179
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.280.97
Possession
72%28%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Brentford 2–1. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Brentford): shots 17–9, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.28–0.97, possession 72%–28%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

4.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for4.6 goals/match2.5 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.1 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Brentford12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBrentfordBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against8.29 shots/match14.8 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.9% ●PossessionArsenal · Brentford44.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBrentfordBaseline
Possession61.9%44.6%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots9 shotsArsenal 17 shots, Brentford 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsArsenal 6 shots, Brentford 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG0.97 xGArsenal 1.28 xG, Brentford 0.97 xG
  • Possession72%28%Arsenal 72%, Brentford 28%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersArsenal 10 corners, Brentford 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls10 foulsArsenal 9 fouls, Brentford 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ivan Toney · Brentford · 55′ · 0.01 xG · on targetYoane Wissa · Brentford · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedZanka · Brentford · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 19′ · 0.04 xG · goalDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 16′ · 0.05 xG · on targetVitaly Janelt · Brentford · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 18′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 24′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 27′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 43′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 59′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 67′ · 0.17 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 86′ · 0.25 xG · goalYoane Wissa · Brentford · 45′ · 0.33 xG · goalNathan Collins · Brentford · 71′ · 0.40 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.28 xG. Brentford: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Declan Rice · Arsenal · 19′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 86′Yoane Wissa · Brentford · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.28 xG · Brentford 0.94 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Arsenal
1Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Arsenal · Premier League0–1
Arsenal — Brentford · Premier League1–1
Brentford — Arsenal · Premier League0–3
Arsenal — Brentford · Premier League2–1
Brentford — Arsenal · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Brentford in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal28 matchesBrentford28 matches
2.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/281.43 goals/match
0.86 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.86 goals/match
2.05 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/281.62 xG/match
17.1 shots/match ▲Shots28/2812.6 shots/match
6.07 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/284.5 shots/match
61.9% ●Possession28/2844.6%
7.64 corners/match ●Corners28/284.5 corners/match
9.54 fouls/matchFouls28/2810 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Mar 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalBrentford
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headArsenal — Brentford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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