PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–5Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLuton TownBrentford
Shots6 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.59 xG/match3.14 xG/match▲
Possession53%●47%
Corners4 corners/match9 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jordan Clark · Luton Town · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSergio Reguilón · Brentford · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Doughty · Luton Town · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetVitaly Janelt · Brentford · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTahith Chong · Luton Town · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Ajer · Brentford · 74′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEthan Pinnock · Brentford · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Ajer · Brentford · 32′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 79′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKristoffer Ajer · Brentford · 56′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMads Roerslev · Brentford · 84′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 24′ · 0.08 xG · goalBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetEthan Pinnock · Brentford · 62′ · 0.09 xG · goalMikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 59′ · 0.10 xG · on targetTahith Chong · Luton Town · 34′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 8′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 36′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLuke Berry · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.31 xG · goalKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 19′ · 0.34 xG · on targetKevin Schade · Brentford · 86′ · 0.42 xG · goalYoane Wissa · Brentford · 45′ · 0.55 xG · goalKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 64′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Luton Town: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.60 xG. Brentford: 21 shots, 9 on target, 3.17 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Luke Berry · Luton Town · 90′Yoane Wissa · Brentford · 24′Yoane Wissa · Brentford · 45′Ethan Pinnock · Brentford · 62′Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 64′Kevin Schade · Brentford · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 0.60 xG · Brentford 3.17 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Luton Town have a visible home split

moderate

Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Luton Town
0Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Luton Town · Premier League3–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Luton Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 9 · 4 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/34▲1.53 goals/match
2.21 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 34/34▲1.74 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/34▲1.65 xG/match
2.14 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/34▲1.48 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/34▲12.8 shots/match
17.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/34▲14.4 shots/match
3.62 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/34▲4.56 shots/match
6.15 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/34▲5.06 shots/match
41.9%Possessionseason · 34/34●44%
5.35 corners/match●Cornersseason · 34/344.71 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/345.97 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3410.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/34▲18%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3482%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Luton Town27.5
Brentford32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Luton Town17.5
Brentford44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Luton Town12.5
Brentford37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Luton Town42.5
Brentford82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Luton Town60
Brentford7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Luton Town47.5
Brentford27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Luton Town33.1
Brentford28.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Luton Town34 matchesBrentford34 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲1.53 goals/match
2.21 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲1.74 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲1.65 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots34/34▲12.8 shots/match
3.62 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲4.56 shots/match
41.9%Possession34/34●44%
5.35 corners/match●Corners34/344.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls34/3410.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Luton Town17 matchesBrentford17 matches
1.47 goals/matchGoals scored17/171.47 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.71 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.53 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.3 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲4.59 shots/match
46.3%●Possession17/1741.4%
6.71 corners/match●Corners17/174.59 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLuton TownBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Luton Town vs Brentford — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath