Premier League · 2023Sat, 27 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

DLDDW

1–1Full-time recap

Burnley

DDLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Burnley
Shots	27 shots/match▲	16 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Expected goals	2.71 xG/match▲	2.06 xG/match
Possession	48%	52%●
Corners	6 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 27 shots, 10 on target, 2.69 xG. Burnley: 16 shots, 7 on target, 2.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 2.69 xG · Burnley 2.07 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.53 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United.

2.79 days▲Rest daysManchester United · Burnley7 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Manchester United	Burnley	Baseline
Rest days	2.79 days	7 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester United

1Draws

0Burnley

23 Sept 2023Burnley — Manchester United · Premier League0–1

8 Feb 2022Burnley — Manchester United · Premier League1–1

30 Dec 2021Manchester United — Burnley · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 2 · 3 too close

1.53 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 34/351.09 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/352 goals/match

1.57 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 34/351.08 xG/match

1.85 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/351.83 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 34/3511.1 shots/match

17.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/35▲16 shots/match

5.21 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 34/353.74 shots/match

5.41 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/356.31 shots/match

50.6%●Possessionseason · 34/3547%

6 corners/match●Cornersseason · 34/354.83 corners/match

7.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/35▲6.26 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3511.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/356%

79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3566%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United52.5

Burnley42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United60.8

Burnley10.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United34.2

Burnley14.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United82.5

Burnley7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United37.5

Burnley57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United70

Burnley37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United59.4

Burnley28.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United34 matchesBurnley35 matches

1.53 goals/match▲Goals scored34/351.09 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/352 goals/match

1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals34/351.08 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shots34/3511.1 shots/match

5.21 shots/match▲Shots on target34/353.74 shots/match

50.6%●Possession34/3547%

6 corners/match●Corners34/354.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls34/3511.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United17 matchesBurnley18 matches

1.65 goals/match▲Goals scored17/181.17 goals/match

1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/181.83 goals/match

1.8 xG/match▲Expected goals17/180.97 xG/match

16.9 shots/match▲Shots17/189.56 shots/match

6.24 shots/match▲Shots on target17/183.67 shots/match

54.1%●Possession17/1843.5%

7.94 corners/match●Corners17/183.94 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.65 fouls/matchFouls17/1812 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples34 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4