Premier League · 2023Sat, 27 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WLDWW

2–2Full-time recap

Chelsea

DWDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Chelsea
Shots	9 shots/match	21 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.1 xG/match	1.57 xG/match▲
Possession	29%	71%●
Corners	2 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	13 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	1.91 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea.

6.21 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Chelsea4 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Aston Villa	Chelsea	Baseline
Rest days	6.21 days	4 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

0Draws

3Chelsea

24 Sept 2023Chelsea — Aston Villa · Premier League0–1

1 Apr 2023Chelsea — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2

16 Oct 2022Aston Villa — Chelsea · Premier League0–2

26 Dec 2021Aston Villa — Chelsea · Premier League1–3

11 Sept 2021Chelsea — Aston Villa · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 1 · 5 too close

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 35/331.91 goals/match

1.49 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 35/331.79 goals/match

1.73 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 35/33▲1.96 xG/match

1.54 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/331.56 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/3314.1 shots/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 35/3314.2 shots/match

5.23 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/335.42 shots/match

4.49 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 35/335.21 shots/match

54%Possessionseason · 35/33●59.3%

6.26 corners/match●Cornersseason · 35/335.21 corners/match

4.23 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 35/334.88 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3312 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/3318%

89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3382%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa67.5

Chelsea77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa64.2

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa75.8

Chelsea32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa27.5

Chelsea12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa42.5

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5

Chelsea47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa58.8

Chelsea63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa35 matchesChelsea33 matches

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scored35/331.91 goals/match

1.49 goals/match▲Goals allowed35/331.79 goals/match

1.73 xG/matchExpected goals35/33▲1.96 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShots35/3314.1 shots/match

5.23 shots/matchShots on target35/335.42 shots/match

54%Possession35/33●59.3%

6.26 corners/match●Corners35/335.21 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls35/3312 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa18 matchesChelsea17 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored18/171.65 goals/match

1.39 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/172 goals/match

2.03 xG/match▲Expected goals18/171.61 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots18/1712.4 shots/match

5.61 shots/match▲Shots on target18/174.71 shots/match

54.6%Possession18/17●59.8%

6.06 corners/match●Corners18/174.41 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1713.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4