Premier League · 2023Tue, 23 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

DWWLW

5–0Full-time recap

Chelsea

WDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Chelsea
Shots	27 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	3.42 xG/match▲	1.68 xG/match
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	4 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 27 shots, 10 on target, 3.40 xG. Chelsea: 7 shots, 1 on target, 1.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 3.40 xG · Chelsea 1.74 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	1.91 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal.

3.02 days▲Rest daysArsenal · Chelsea8 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Arsenal	Chelsea	Baseline
Rest days	3.02 days	8 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.2 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Chelsea13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Chelsea	Baseline
Shots	17.2 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	8.29 shots/match	14.4 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Arsenal

1Draws

1Chelsea

21 Oct 2023Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League2–2

2 May 2023Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League3–1

6 Nov 2022Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

20 Apr 2022Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League2–4

22 Aug 2021Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 0 · 4 too close

2.41 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 34/321.91 goals/match

0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/321.78 goals/match

2.01 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/321.97 xG/match

0.72 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 34/321.57 xG/match

17.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 34/3213.9 shots/match

8.29 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 34/3214.4 shots/match

6.06 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 34/325.44 shots/match

2.32 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/325.25 shots/match

59.2%●Possessionseason · 34/3259%

7 corners/match●Cornersseason · 34/325.25 corners/match

2.91 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/324.97 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3211.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3219%

85%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3281%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal77.5

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal90.8

Chelsea64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal95.8

Chelsea31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal82.5

Chelsea7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal17.5

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5

Chelsea47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal70

Chelsea61.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal34 matchesChelsea32 matches

2.41 goals/match▲Goals scored34/321.91 goals/match

0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/321.78 goals/match

2.01 xG/matchExpected goals34/321.97 xG/match

17.2 shots/match▲Shots34/3213.9 shots/match

6.06 shots/match▲Shots on target34/325.44 shots/match

59.2%●Possession34/3259%

7 corners/match●Corners34/325.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.1 fouls/matchFouls34/3211.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal17 matchesChelsea16 matches

2.53 goals/match▲Goals scored17/161.63 goals/match

0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/162 goals/match

2.24 xG/match▲Expected goals17/161.62 xG/match

18.2 shots/match▲Shots17/1611.8 shots/match

6.71 shots/match▲Shots on target17/164.69 shots/match

58.6%Possession17/16●59.1%

7.35 corners/match●Corners17/164.44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1613 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.02 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples34 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 23 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4