PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Brighton & Hove Albion 1–0 Aston Villa · Premier League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brighton & Hove Albion won 1–0.

Shots
152
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
2.530.05
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brighton & Hove Albion beat Aston Villa 1–0. Recorded in this match (Brighton & Hove Albion – Aston Villa): shots 15–2, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 2.53–0.05, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.51 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.51 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots2 shotsBrighton & Hove Albion 15 shots, Aston Villa 2 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotBrighton & Hove Albion 8 shots, Aston Villa 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.53 xG0.05 xGBrighton & Hove Albion 2.53 xG, Aston Villa 0.05 xG
  • Possession53%47%Brighton & Hove Albion 53%, Aston Villa 47%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersBrighton & Hove Albion 7 corners, Aston Villa 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsBrighton & Hove Albion 13 fouls, Aston Villa 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matty Cash · Aston Villa · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 3′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMoussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 6′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 80′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoël Veltman · Brighton & Hove Albion · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 8′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 83′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 67′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.18 xG · on targetJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 62′ · 0.30 xG · on targetPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.50 xG · on targetJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 87′ · 0.55 xG · goalJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 87′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 15 shots, 8 on target, 2.95 xG. Aston Villa: 2 shots, 1 on target, 0.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′João Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 2.95 xG · Aston Villa 0.05 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Brighton & Hove Albion
0Draws
5Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League6–1
Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2
Brighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2
Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion35 matchesAston Villa36 matches
1.51 goals/matchGoals scored35/36▲ 2.03 goals/match
1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed35/36▲ 1.47 goals/match
1.53 xG/matchExpected goals35/36▲ 1.68 xG/match
14.8 shots/match ▲Shots35/3613.6 shots/match
5.69 shots/match ▲Shots on target35/365.11 shots/match
61% ●Possession35/3653.8%
5.46 corners/matchCorners35/36● 6.17 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls35/3610.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples35 / 36home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 May 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrighton & Hove AlbionAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headBrighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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