Premier League · 2023Sun, 19 May 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

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2–1Full-time recap

Everton

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Everton
Shots	26 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	3.01 xG/match▲	0.61 xG/match
Possession	69%●	31%
Corners	8 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 26 shots, 5 on target, 3.05 xG. Everton: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 3.05 xG · Everton 0.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.3 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Everton13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Everton	Baseline
Shots	17.3 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	13.4 shots/match
Shots against	8.5 shots/match	14.2 shots/match	14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.4%●PossessionArsenal · Everton40.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Everton	Baseline
Possession	58.4%	40.6%	49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.39 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	2.39 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Arsenal

0Draws

2Everton

17 Sept 2023Everton — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

1 Mar 2023Arsenal — Everton · Premier League4–0

4 Feb 2023Everton — Arsenal · Premier League1–0

22 May 2022Arsenal — Everton · Premier League5–1

6 Dec 2021Everton — Arsenal · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Everton in 0 · 2 too close

2.39 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 38/381.05 goals/match

0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 38/381.34 goals/match

2.04 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 38/381.44 xG/match

0.75 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 38/381.48 xG/match

17.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 38/3813.3 shots/match

8.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 38/3814.2 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 38/384.26 shots/match

2.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 38/384.5 shots/match

58.4%●Possessionseason · 38/3840.6%

6.97 corners/match●Cornersseason · 38/384.76 corners/match

2.97 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 38/386.34 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 38/3812 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 38/3834%

87%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 38/3868%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal72.5

Everton17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal89.2

Everton29.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal95.8

Everton65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal82.5

Everton92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal22.5

Everton80

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5

Everton27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal71.2

Everton46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal38 matchesEverton38 matches

2.39 goals/match▲Goals scored38/381.05 goals/match

0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowed38/381.34 goals/match

2.04 xG/match▲Expected goals38/381.44 xG/match

17.3 shots/match▲Shots38/3813.3 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target38/384.26 shots/match

58.4%●Possession38/3840.6%

6.97 corners/match●Corners38/384.76 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls38/3812 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal19 matchesEverton19 matches

2.53 goals/match▲Goals scored19/190.95 goals/match

0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.74 goals/match

2.34 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.17 xG/match

18.9 shots/match▲Shots19/1911.2 shots/match

6.74 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193.53 shots/match

58.9%●Possession19/1939.3%

7.32 corners/match●Corners19/194.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls19/1913 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.04 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples38 / 38home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 May 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4