Premier League · 2023Sun, 19 May 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Burnley

DWDLL

1–2Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Burnley	Nottingham Forest
Shots	20 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.21 xG/match	1.78 xG/match▲
Possession	73%●	27%
Corners	4 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Burnley: 20 shots, 3 on target, 1.18 xG. Nottingham Forest: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Burnley 1.18 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.71 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Burnley's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Burnley's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Burnley's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Burnley's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.3 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	17.3 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Burnley have a visible home split

moderate

Burnley's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.4 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Burnley

1Draws

0Nottingham Forest

18 Sept 2023Nottingham Forest — Burnley · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 8 · 5 too close

1.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 38/38▲1.29 goals/match

2.05 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 38/38▲1.76 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 37/38▲1.32 xG/match

1.87 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 37/38▲1.42 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/3811.9 shots/match

16.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/38▲13.4 shots/match

3.76 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 37/383.89 shots/match

6.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/38▲4.5 shots/match

47.7%●Possessionseason · 37/3840.3%

4.78 corners/match●Cornersseason · 37/383.89 corners/match

6.3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/386.45 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3811.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

5%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 38/38▲11%

68%Scoring frequencyseason · 38/38▲74%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley42.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley11.7

Nottingham Forest20.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley15.8

Nottingham Forest53.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley7.5

Nottingham Forest77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley55

Nottingham Forest62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 49%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley32.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley27.5

Nottingham Forest28.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Burnley38 matchesNottingham Forest38 matches

1.08 goals/matchGoals scored38/38▲1.29 goals/match

2.05 goals/matchGoals allowed38/38▲1.76 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals37/38▲1.32 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots37/3811.9 shots/match

3.76 shots/matchShots on target37/383.89 shots/match

47.7%●Possession37/3840.3%

4.78 corners/match●Corners37/383.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls37/3811.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Burnley19 matchesNottingham Forest19 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.16 goals/match

2.26 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.95 goals/match

1.2 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.32 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots19/1910.4 shots/match

3.84 shots/matchShots on target19/193.84 shots/match

51.7%●Possession19/1939.2%

5.58 corners/match●Corners19/193.47 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.94 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples38 / 38home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 May 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4