Premier League · 2024Sat, 14 Sept 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Liverpool

WWW

0–1Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest
Shots	14 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.94 xG/match▲	0.44 xG/match
Possession	69%●	31%
Corners	7 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Liverpool: 14 shots, 5 on target, 0.93 xG. Nottingham Forest: 5 shots, 3 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Liverpool 0.93 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.42 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.5 shots/match▲ShotsLiverpool · Nottingham Forest14.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Shots	15.5 shots/match	14.5 shots/match	13.3 shots/match
Shots against	7 shots/match	10.8 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

60%●PossessionLiverpool · Nottingham Forest42.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	60%	42.8%	50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Liverpool

0Draws

1Nottingham Forest

2 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest — Liverpool · Premier League0–1

29 Oct 2023Liverpool — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0

22 Apr 2023Liverpool — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–2

22 Oct 2022Nottingham Forest — Liverpool · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 13 too close

1.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41 goals/match

0.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/40.5 goals/match

2.01 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.31 xG/match

0.7 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/40.76 xG/match

15.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/414.5 shots/match

7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/410.8 shots/match

5.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/46 shots/match

2.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/43.25 shots/match

60%●Possessionseason · 4/442.8%

7 corners/match●Cornersseason · 4/45.25 corners/match

3.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/45 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/413 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

75%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/450%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool77.5

Nottingham Forest30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool76.7

Nottingham Forest59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool95.8

Nottingham Forest74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool47.5

Nottingham Forest97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool50

Nottingham Forest65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool87.5

Nottingham Forest52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool71.9

Nottingham Forest68.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Liverpool4 matchesNottingham Forest4 matches

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match

0.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/40.5 goals/match

2.01 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.31 xG/match

15.5 shots/match▲Shots4/414.5 shots/match

5.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲6 shots/match

60%●Possession4/442.8%

7 corners/match●Corners4/45.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/413 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Liverpool2 matchesNottingham Forest2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Sept 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4