Premier League · 2024Sat, 21 Sept 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WLWW

3–1Full-time recap

Wolverhampton

LLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Wolverhampton
Shots	9 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.73 xG/match▲	0.51 xG/match
Possession	53%●	47%
Corners	6 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.77 xG. Wolverhampton: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 1.77 xG · Wolverhampton 0.52 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Wolverhampton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Wolverhampton10.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Wolverhampton	Baseline
Shots	12.4 shots/match	10.8 shots/match	12.8 shots/match
Shots against	9.6 shots/match	14.2 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa

2Draws

2Wolverhampton

30 Mar 2024Aston Villa — Wolverhampton · Premier League2–0

8 Oct 2023Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

6 May 2023Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

4 Jan 2023Aston Villa — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1

2 Apr 2022Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Wolverhampton in 0 · 4 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 5/51 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 5/52.8 goals/match

1.74 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/50.98 xG/match

1.04 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/51.44 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/510.8 shots/match

9.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/514.2 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 5/53.8 shots/match

3.2 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 5/55.8 shots/match

51%●Possessionseason · 5/546.2%

4.6 corners/match●Cornersseason · 5/53.8 corners/match

2.8 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/56.6 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/515.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/50%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa62.5

Wolverhampton42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa58.3

Wolverhampton25.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa70.8

Wolverhampton24.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa42.5

Wolverhampton27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa52.5

Wolverhampton92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa42.5

Wolverhampton20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa46.2

Wolverhampton40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa5 matchesWolverhampton5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match

1.74 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.98 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match

51%●Possession5/546.2%

4.6 corners/match●Corners5/53.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/515.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa3 matchesWolverhampton3 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match

1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match

1.71 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.57 xG/match

12.3 shots/match▲Shots3/310 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.33 shots/match

55%●Possession3/347.3%

5.33 corners/match●Corners3/33.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.67 fouls/matchFouls3/316 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples5 / 5home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Sept 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4