Premier League · 2024Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

LLLDW

0–0Full-time recap

Newcastle United

DWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Everton	Newcastle United
Shots	8 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.67 xG/match	2.05 xG/match▲
Possession	32%	68%●
Corners	0 corners/match	10 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Everton: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.74 xG. Newcastle United: 14 shots, 3 on target, 2.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 0.74 xG · Newcastle United 2.09 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's away-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United have a visible away split

weak

Newcastle United's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.5 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Newcastle United have recorded the higher season possession share.

36.3%PossessionEverton · Newcastle United●47.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Newcastle United	Baseline
Possession	36.3%	47.9%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Everton

1Draws

2Newcastle United

2 Apr 2024Newcastle United — Everton · Premier League1–1

7 Dec 2023Everton — Newcastle United · Premier League3–0

27 Apr 2023Everton — Newcastle United · Premier League1–4

19 Oct 2022Newcastle United — Everton · Premier League1–0

17 Mar 2022Everton — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 9 · 3 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.14 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.49 xG/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.48 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲11.6 shots/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/716.1 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲3.86 shots/match

5.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/75.43 shots/match

36.3%Possessionseason · 7/7●47.9%

3.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●5.86 corners/match

7.29 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲6.86 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/710.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲29%

57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton2.5

Newcastle United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton15.8

Newcastle United31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton29.2

Newcastle United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton67.5

Newcastle United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton32.5

Newcastle United27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton7.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton15.6

Newcastle United37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton7 matchesNewcastle United7 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.14 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.49 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲11.6 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲3.86 shots/match

36.3%Possession7/7●47.9%

3.14 corners/matchCorners7/7●5.86 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/710.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton4 matchesNewcastle United4 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored4/41 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.25 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.7 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots4/4▲14.5 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲4.75 shots/match

39.3%Possession4/4●60.3%

3.5 corners/matchCorners4/4●6.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/47.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.21 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4