PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 27 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WDWWL
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalLiverpool
Shots9 shots/match9 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.92 xG/match▲0.81 xG/match
Possession45%55%●
Corners1 corners/match3 corners/match●
Fouls14 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mikel Merino · Arsenal · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTrent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 52′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTrent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRyan Gravenberch · Liverpool · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCurtis Jones · Liverpool · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Mac Allister · Liverpool · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 88′ · 0.08 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 31′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.16 xG · goalVirgil van Dijk · Liverpool · 18′ · 0.26 xG · goalMohamed Salah · Liverpool · 81′ · 0.30 xG · goalMikel Merino · Arsenal · 43′ · 0.40 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.95 xG. Liverpool: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 9′Mikel Merino · Arsenal · 43′Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool · 18′Mohamed Salah · Liverpool · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 0.95 xG · Liverpool 0.83 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.4 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Liverpool13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalLiverpoolBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against13.9 shots/match9.44 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Arsenal
2Draws
1Liverpool
Arsenal — Liverpool · Premier League3–1
Liverpool — Arsenal · Premier League1–1
Liverpool — Arsenal · Premier League2–2
Arsenal — Liverpool · Premier League3–2
Arsenal — Liverpool · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Liverpool in 8 · 5 too close

1.89 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/91.89 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.56 goals/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲1.86 xG/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.78 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/913.9 shots/match
13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲9.44 shots/match
5.56 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲5.89 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲3.22 shots/match
48.8%Possessionseason · 9/9●57.8%
6.11 corners/match●Cornersseason · 9/95.89 corners/match
4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲3.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/912.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲56%
89%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/989%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal47.5
Liverpool87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal70
Liverpool69.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal60.8
Liverpool94.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal72.5
Liverpool27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal80
Liverpool65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal77.5
Liverpool65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal73.1
Liverpool65.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal9 matchesLiverpool9 matches
1.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.89 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.56 goals/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.86 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots9/913.9 shots/match
5.56 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.89 shots/match
48.8%Possession9/9●57.8%
6.11 corners/match●Corners9/95.89 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls9/912.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal5 matchesLiverpool5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
2.35 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.84 xG/match
20.4 shots/match▲Shots5/512.8 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/5●57.4%
8.4 corners/match●Corners5/56.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Oct 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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