PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricIpswich TownLeicester City
Shots14 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals1 xG/match1.55 xG/match▲
Possession42%58%●
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester City · 8′ · 0.01 xG · on targetHarry Winks · Leicester City · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOmari Hutchinson · Ipswich Town · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHarry Winks · Leicester City · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOmari Hutchinson · Ipswich Town · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKalvin Phillips · Ipswich Town · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Winks · Leicester City · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ayew · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKasey McAteer · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConor Chaplin · Ipswich Town · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Leicester City · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDara O'Shea · Ipswich Town · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKalvin Phillips · Ipswich Town · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBen Johnson · Ipswich Town · 43′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHarry Winks · Leicester City · 64′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJordan Ayew · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedConor Chaplin · Ipswich Town · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBoubakary Soumaré · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWout Faes · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 15′ · 0.06 xG · on targetConor Chaplin · Ipswich Town · 34′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKalvin Phillips · Ipswich Town · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAbdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWout Faes · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOmari Hutchinson · Ipswich Town · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeif Davis · Ipswich Town · 55′ · 0.08 xG · goalJordan Ayew · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 86′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDara O'Shea · Ipswich Town · 31′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedStephy Mavididi · Leicester City · 3′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ayew · Leicester City · 87′ · 0.28 xG · on targetJordan Ayew · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.29 xG · goalSammie Szmodics · Ipswich Town · 9′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Ipswich Town: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG. Leicester City: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.50 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Leif Davis · Ipswich Town · 55′Jordan Ayew · Leicester City · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Ipswich Town 1.00 xG · Leicester City 1.50 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Ipswich Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Ipswich Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Ipswich Town have a visible home split

moderate

Ipswich Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match10 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Ipswich Town
2Draws
0Leicester City
Leicester City — Ipswich Town · Championship1–1
Ipswich Town — Leicester City · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Ipswich Town favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Leicester City in 7 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.4 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.8 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/10▲1.06 xG/match
2.31 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.98 xG/match
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲10.7 shots/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1018.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲3.2 shots/match
6.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/105.9 shots/match
41.2%Possessionseason · 10/10●47.5%
5.2 corners/match●Cornersseason · 10/103.4 corners/match
5.9 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/107.7 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1010%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Ipswich Town7.5
Leicester City37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Ipswich Town9.2
Leicester City25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Ipswich Town15.8
Leicester City17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Ipswich Town22.5
Leicester City7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town67.5
Leicester City42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town37.5
Leicester City5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Ipswich Town27.5
Leicester City17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Ipswich Town10 matchesLeicester City10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.8 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.06 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots10/10▲10.7 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.2 shots/match
41.2%Possession10/10●47.5%
5.2 corners/match●Corners10/103.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Ipswich Town5 matchesLeicester City5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
0.87 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.38 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots5/512.4 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
45.6%●Possession5/544%
5.8 corners/match●Corners5/53.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.83 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsIpswich TownLeicester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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