PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Arsenal 3–0 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

Arsenal

WLDLD
3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 3–0.

Shots
197
Shots on target
70
Expected goals
1.190.33
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Nottingham Forest 3–0. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Nottingham Forest): shots 19–7, shots on target 7–0, expected goals 1.19–0.33, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.2 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.7% ●PossessionArsenal · Nottingham Forest41.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArsenalNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession51.7%41.1%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots7 shotsArsenal 19 shots, Nottingham Forest 7 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots0 shotsArsenal 7 shots, Nottingham Forest 0 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG0.33 xGArsenal 1.19 xG, Nottingham Forest 0.33 xG
  • Possession66%34%Arsenal 66%, Nottingham Forest 34%
  • Corners8 corners1 cornerArsenal 8 corners, Nottingham Forest 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsArsenal 10 fouls, Nottingham Forest 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 40′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 52′ · 0.04 xG · goalRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 42′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNikola Milenković · Nottingham Forest · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 86′ · 0.07 xG · goalGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 15′ · 0.08 xG · goalBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 40′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJota Silva · Nottingham Forest · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 25′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 2′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 22′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 14′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 26′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 19 shots, 7 on target, 1.20 xG. Nottingham Forest: 7 shots, 0 on target, 0.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 15′Thomas Partey · Arsenal · 52′Ethan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.20 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.35 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Arsenal
0Draws
1Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Arsenal · Premier League1–2
Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–1
Nottingham Forest — Arsenal · Premier League1–0
Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal12 matchesNottingham Forest12 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.25 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed12/121.08 goals/match
1.54 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.25 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots12/1213.7 shots/match
5.08 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/124.75 shots/match
51.7% ●Possession12/1241.1%
6 corners/match ●Corners12/124.92 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headArsenal — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required