PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 30 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordLeicester City
Shots13 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.4 xG/match▲1.06 xG/match
Possession60%●40%
Corners5 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Patson Daka · Leicester City · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuke Thomas · Leicester City · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFabio Carvalho · Brentford · 76′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 2′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedStephy Mavididi · Leicester City · 77′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKevin Schade · Brentford · 5′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJordan Ayew · Leicester City · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKevin Schade · Brentford · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 14′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJames Justin · Leicester City · 81′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKevin Schade · Brentford · 29′ · 0.15 xG · goalKevin Schade · Brentford · 45′ · 0.33 xG · goalKevin Schade · Brentford · 59′ · 0.63 xG · goalFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 21′ · 0.70 xG · goalYoane Wissa · Brentford · 25′ · 0.75 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brentford: 13 shots, 6 on target, 2.44 xG. Leicester City: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Yoane Wissa · Brentford · 25′Kevin Schade · Brentford · 29′Kevin Schade · Brentford · 45′Kevin Schade · Brentford · 59′Facundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 21′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 2.44 xG · Leicester City 1.04 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Brentford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Leicester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.23 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.23 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford have a visible home split

moderate

Brentford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Brentford
2Draws
2Leicester City
Brentford — Leicester City · Premier League1–1
Leicester City — Brentford · Premier League2–2
Leicester City — Brentford · Premier League2–1
Brentford — Leicester City · Premier League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Leicester City in 4 · 3 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131.23 goals/match
1.77 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/132.08 goals/match
1.68 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.03 xG/match
1.69 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.98 xG/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/139.54 shots/match
18.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲17.2 shots/match
5.15 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133.15 shots/match
6.54 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲5.77 shots/match
47.7%●Possessionseason · 13/1346.2%
4.46 corners/match●Cornersseason · 13/133.46 corners/match
7.46 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲7.08 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
7.31 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/138%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford42.5
Leicester City37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford59.2
Leicester City14.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford10.8
Leicester City14.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford22.5
Leicester City7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford2.5
Leicester City37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford12.5
Leicester City7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford26.2
Leicester City13.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford13 matchesLeicester City13 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.23 goals/match
1.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.08 goals/match
1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.03 xG/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shots13/139.54 shots/match
5.15 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.15 shots/match
47.7%●Possession13/1346.2%
4.46 corners/match●Corners13/133.46 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
7.31 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford7 matchesLeicester City7 matches
3.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.43 goals/match
1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.57 goals/match
2.42 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.23 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shots7/710.7 shots/match
6.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.14 shots/match
51.6%●Possession7/744.1%
5.43 corners/match●Corners7/74 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
7.29 fouls/matchFouls7/79.86 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordLeicester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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